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Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.
Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.
Publishing since January 2024.
International Stories
4 key international stories for the week:
1) Hitmen, Underground Warfare, and Iran Boyana Nikolova
Iran is well-acquainted with warfare tactics. A bit too much, actually - although most experts on the Middle East have learned this by now.
Despite Iran boasting the most active military in the region, a rapidly expanding nuclear program, and multiple security partnerships with foreign nations, it’s still intent on beefing up its defense. Naturally, many other countries have assumed that Iran is no longer aiming to protect its borders with its defense spending, but it’s gearing up for an attack. Rather than attempting to prove their innocence, Iranian officials have given up on denying such rumors. Recent actions of theirs speak for themselves.
Last month in the US, a 46-year-old Pakistani man was arrested after allegedly planning to assassinate multiple high-profile politicians and government officials. Even former US president Donald Trump was suspected of being on this list. Surprisingly, the man found guilty of plotting the assassinations was faced with a murder-to-hire charge on top of the rest of his case, meaning he had been paid to execute a plan devised by a third party. The third party he had supposedly been hired to kill for was Iran. With the man having connections to the Iranian government and an otherwise lack of motivation for the crime, the US had found all the proof it needed to reach such a conclusion.
Concerningly, incidents like these aren’t uncommon and the US isn’t the only target of them. For example, Israeli officials recently admitted that after they successfully assassinated the Hamas leader Ismal Haniyeh, they had to immediately refocus their military efforts to prepare for a retaliatory attack promised by Iran. Whether such an attack is carried out by targeting Israeli military or government officials or simply amassing troops at the border, a threat is undeniably present. And worse, it’s shown the rest of the world that Iran isn’t afraid to use proxies in the form of hitmen and hackers to get what it needs.
So what exactly does Iran get from collaborating with criminals like these when its own forces are already so many and so experienced? The answer lies in how “disposable” these groups are to the Iranian government, i.e. how much Iran would lose out on if they were to get arrested or killed. In just the past few months, Iran has seen many of it and its allies' top operatives be killed abroad. To both avoid further humiliation for its military and prevent the deaths of important strategists, hiring underground criminal groups, hitmen, and hackers is actually a tactical choice for Iran, and better yet, it means Iran can take jabs at foreign officials risk-free.
Understanding who Iran chooses to work with is more complicated, given that not all for-hire criminals are created the same. Despite this, it’s clear that cyberwarfare has increased in popularity with Iran. Hackers aren’t just incredibly difficult to trace, but they’re capable of more than just data breaches and stolen funds. They can contribute to assassination attempts. According to 3 former senior officials for the Trump Administration, hackers from Iran have been probing access to their emails for the past 2 years. This is believed to be a part of Iran’s planned retaliation after in 2020, US officials killed Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian military leader. The attempted hacking is likely related to an assassination campaign that is targeting the Trump team members that made killing Soleimani possible. In some cases, Iranian cyberwarfare has even been used as a tool for kidnappings.
Apart from cyberwarfare, Iran has learned that by colluding with entire criminal groups, it can be even more efficient. With evidence pointing to Iran’s ties with at least 5 criminal groups, it has used them to abduct, terrorize, and kill officials abroad. Last year in Canada, Iran enlisted criminal groups to murder a Sikh activist. This year, Iran hired them to track down and ambush exiled journalist Pouria Zeraati. Because of these groups’ international presence and for some, how embedded they are in the mainstream, it’s become impossible to track them and hold them accountable. The Hells Angels biker gang, a Russian mob called “Thieves in Law,” a heroin distribution service based in Iran, and countless other syndicates have already been accused of such activities.
Journalists have been the most obvious and vulnerable targets so far, but soon, hundreds of government officials may join their ranks. That is, if the rest of the world doesn’t begin protecting against Iran’s ramped up “defense.”
Read more here:
2) ASEAN, Wake Up! Rohan Dash
In the 1960s, the most powerful country in Asia was Communist China. For the American mind, it’s no surprise that other countries wanted to have no part in communist behaviors, and as a result, ASEAN (or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) was formed in 1967, with a priority of economic, social, and cultural development in the region. Nearly 60 years later though, ASEAN remains just about irrelevant. To understand why, we must go back to its history and look at how ASEAN can rebuild.
ASEAN was founded with five key members: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Over the next thirty years, five more members would join the intergovernmental alliance: Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. Although ASEAN hasn't had a new member since 1999, both East Timor and Papua New Guinea are seeking to become members of the association.
During its early years, ASEAN was incredibly effective. At a time when countries were continuing the race to develop nuclear weapons, the group would sign a treaty specifically to ensure Southeast Asia would become a nuclear-weapon-free zone, ensuring a lack of tensions between the member states. By 2007, the ASEAN Charter was drafted and ratified by the majority of members, allowing the countries to share the same vision for their future. However, progress would only slow down from here.
Over the next few years, ASEAN would start to lose its international relevance. Indeed, by 2016, their biggest international partner, the United States, would lose touch with the organization, as former President Donald Trump would pursue an “America First” policy. ASEAN, unfortunately, didn’t try to correct this. Indeed, in the most recent few years, the organization has mostly only recognized issues, but hasn’t actually taken action to correct ongoing issues. And when it comes to Europe? Well, ASEAN just has different priorities that only keep themselves away from the EU. There’s little chance of impact, and now is not the time for ASEAN to remain a slumber organization.
Asia is now the pinnacle of growing world power, and is facing instability. For example, there are large tensions in the South China Sea, between China and several ASEAN members specifically. While international powers like the United States have tried to respond, it will only be effective if ASEAN themselves step into the issue due to their geographic location. Doing nothing would effectively shut down the purpose of the alliance - however, unfortunately, that's all they've done. Additionally, Myanmar is having an ongoing civil war since 2021. Being a member state itself, it's an obligation of the rest of the countries to aid Myanmar in any way possible. And ASEAN's external relations aren't getting any better. In 2023, ASEAN hosted a summit that saw neither Joe Biden nor Xi Jinping even arrive at the venue, demonstrating the lack of influence ASEAN has.
ASEAN needs to wake up. Currently, some of the best countries that are suited to do that include Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand, with stronger financial institutions and international relations that could easily help them. There is no “if they don’t” - the time is now to ensure Asia remains stable.
Read more here:
3) Election Fraud, Election Frogs Rowan Seipp
In America, elections have become a hotly contested issue. In 2000, we had the hanging Chad scandal while in 2020, we had rioters try to seize the Capitol and demand to overturn the election. In the United States, we assume a never-ending cloud of fear hangs over our own elections. However, in Africa, there isn’t just a fear of election-stealing. Rather, election stealing is a real and prevalent problem.
In the North African country of Algeria, voters came to the polls expecting another uneventful election. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune was widely expected to win a second term. The seasoned political veteran had been in power for a full term and had announced plans to run for a second. President Tebboune was by all accounts a fairly popular leader. Despite this, he had continuously shown authoritarian tendencies. During his tenure, he oversaw the rampant political arrests in the region of Kabylia. Kabylia is known as an epicenter of anti-government sentiment. Several members of the Movement for the Autonomy of Kabylia are behind bars.
Coming into the election, many Algerians expected a simple win for Tebboune. With all things considered, it was. Algeria’s National Independent Election Authority, announced that Tebboune had won 94.7% of Saturday’s vote, far outpacing his challengers Islamist Abdelali Hassani Cherif, who received only 3.2% and socialist Youcef Aouchiche, who got just 2.2%. Quickly after, both of his top opponents claimed that the election had massive discrepancies. In other words, other election authorities claimed different results. However, where the election gets strange is when Tebboune himself (the winner) claimed that the election had massive discrepancies as well.
The source of this complaint appears to be Tebboune’s efforts to increase voter turnout. The fact that he won with more than the 87% that Vladimir Putin won in Russia’s March elections and the 92% that Ilham Aliyev got in Azerbaijan’s February contest means that for Tebboune, all of his efforts to legitimize Algerian elections seemed to go completely to waste.
Tebboune’s efforts may have paid off, however: a government-officiated recount found that Tebboune still won the election, but by a smaller margin. Instead of 94.7%, he now had 83% of the vote. While it was still an overwhelming margin, it was a valuable step toward voter legitimacy.
Fraudulent elections are the rule rather than the exception in Africa. However, what made Algeria’s fraud so surprising was that the President himself called out his administration. To persuade his people that his nation's elections were real he sacrificed his political landslide. Hopefully, Algeria’s steps to address political fraud will influence how other African nations address their issues.
Read more here:
4) We Took Your Spices, Not Your Diversity Ruhaan Sood
At one point, The British Empire ruled over 70% of the world. Now they’re reduced to a small island between a channel with Europe. Have you ever heard of Michelin starred cuisine when you visit London?
Neither have I.
It’s ironic that an empire simultaneously ruled both hemispheres of the world and can’t retain a single bit of it in the present day. When we switch the conversation to diversity? It gets even worse.
The House of Common Library elicits, Britain plans to reduce net migration rates by the end of 2024. They’re only shoving their minimal diversity rates down the drain. The U.K government predicts that migration levels of folks inbound from countries like India, Iran, and various other African nations could reach levels as low as 150,000. For a country apparently dead set on taking over the world, their invitation for the world towards them is sadly minimal.
Immigration data has been a persistent challenge for Conservative prime ministers and home secretaries since David Cameron's unsuccessful pledge in 2010 to reduce net migration to the "tens of thousands." The Conservative approach to migration has been inconsistent over the past 14 years. Initially, under Cameron and later Theresa May, policies focused on restricting study, work, and family migration. Between 2010 and 2012, these measures seemed effective, as net migration decreased. However, things changed. A rise in net migration in 2014 and concerns over EU immigration led the Conservatives to promise a Brexit referendum in their 2015 manifesto. After the referendum, net migration appeared set to decrease, and EU migration started dropping even before the end of free movement in 2020. Yet, this trend was largely offset by a rise in non-EU immigration.
Under Boris Johnson, free movement for EU citizens ended, but immigration for non-EU workers and students became easier, with a reduction in salary and skills thresholds and the reintroduction of a post-study work route. These policies, along with humanitarian pathways for Ukrainians and Hong Kongers, have contributed to today's high migration levels. Recently, the Conservatives have partially reversed some of these more liberal policies, taking a stricter stance by raising the income threshold for skilled workers and restricting family migration for students and some workers. The effects of these changes are still emerging in the data.
Even the army is falling short.
Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of MI6 from 1999 to 2004, expressed concern over recent evidence reported by the Telegraph, which suggests that diversity, equality, and inclusion are being prioritized in national security matters. He stated, "This is highly concerning. Effective security policies at any level cannot afford 'politically correct' compromises." The issue has surfaced as the government faces calls to address the British army’s shrinking size, with NATO warning that Western nations may face conflict with Russia within the next two decades.
Based on current trends, the British army could shrink to just 52,000 troops in ten years. The force currently consists of around 76,000 regular full-time soldiers, down from nearly 103,000 in 2012. The government’s plan to reduce troop numbers to 72,500 by next year has sparked concern, particularly among US military leaders.Despite over a billion pounds being invested in recruitment efforts through a private contractor, recruitment struggles have raised fears that the army’s size could decline even more rapidly.
Labour's shadow defense secretary, John Healey, commented, "If ministers don't address the recruitment and retention crisis, the army is on track for further decline." He emphasized that, despite the shrinking numbers, the UK still views itself as a leading military power. The British army is contributing 20,000 troops to major NATO exercises involving 90,000 personnel next week. The UK is also one of only eight NATO members, out of 30, to meet the agreed target of investing 2% of GDP in defense.
UK businesses are now required to pay overseas workers on a Skilled Worker visa significantly higher wages, as the government takes steps to curb low-cost foreign labor and reduce net migration. As part of a comprehensive set of measures announced by the Home Secretary in December, which would have prevented 300,000 people who entered the UK last year from doing so under the new rules, the general salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas has been raised by 48%, from £26,200 to £38,700. This increase aims to ensure that the UK’s immigration system prioritizes high-skilled workers, supporting economic growth while reducing overall immigration numbers. The government has also abolished the shortage occupation list, ensuring that migrants are no longer paid less than UK workers in shortage roles.
A new Immigration Salary List (ISL) has been introduced, based on advice from the independent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC). Only roles that are skilled, in shortage, and aligned with sector efforts to invest in the domestic workforce will be included. The government stresses that inclusion on the list must not lower wages or hinder the recruitment of British workers. Employers are encouraged to focus on training, upskilling, and prioritizing domestic hires. This move is part of the government’s broader strategy to support British citizens into employment, with its 100 million euro Back to Work plan. The initiative aims to remove barriers for over a million long-term unemployed, long-term ill, or disabled individuals, marking one of the most significant employment interventions in recent times.
If the U.K wants to keep shrinking and falling on their word, it’s their problem; not the rest of the world’s.
Read More Here:
The Red Folder is brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the News Brief Team:
Paul Robinson
Boyana Nikolova
Sasha Morel
Roshan Shivnani
Rowan Seipp
Anthony Babu
Daniel Song
Rohan Dash
Charlie Hui
Justin Palazzolo
Ruhaan Sood
Evelyn Ding
Robert Zhang
Sahana Srikanth
Meera Menon
Andy Choy
Max Guo
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