The Red Folder

Last updated April 22, 2024. 

Key stories for the week, brought to you by the distinguished newsman Sasha Morel.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Domestic Stories

3 key domestic stories for the week:

1) Trump’s Confidant is Now His Enemy Sasha Morel

Michael Cohen, once vocal about his willingness to endure anything for Donald Trump, now finds himself positioned as a key prosecution witness in the ex-president's trial. The trial, unprecedented in U.S. history, commenced on Monday in a Manhattan court, marking the pinnacle of Cohen's journey from Trump's loyal lawyer and "fixer", to a vocal opponent.


"I'm the guy who would take a bullet for the president," Cohen declared to Vanity Fair in 2017.

The trial revolves around Cohen's $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels, a porn star, prior to the 2016 election, aimed at silencing her regarding a past encounter with Trump. Cohen, formerly a high-ranking executive at Trump's real estate empire before transitioning into his legal counsel, asserts that Trump orchestrated the payment.


Trump, now facing 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal the payment, has vehemently denied any involvement with Daniels and has labeled Cohen a "serial liar."


Cohen's stance shifted midway through Trump's presidency as federal investigators scrutinized his role in the Daniels payment and other affairs. His 2019 testimony before a U.S. congressional committee revealed his disillusionment: "I am ashamed because I know what Mr. Trump is. He is a racist. He is a con man. He is a cheat."


Following Trump's 2023 indictment, Cohen expressed his commitment to "speak truth to power," even if it meant becoming Trump's adversary.

This isn't Cohen's first time testifying against Trump. In a prior civil fraud case regarding Trump's property valuations, Cohen disclosed manipulating property values to align with Trump's directives. Subsequently, a judge ordered Trump to pay substantial penalties and interest for misleading lenders and insurers.


Cohen's journey began in 2007 when he joined the Trump Organization as executive vice president and special counsel. Prior to that, he practiced malpractice law and owned a taxi fleet. His association with Trump deepened during the 2016 presidential campaign, where he served as a legal advisor. Despite his proximity to Trump during his presidency, Cohen never held an official White House position.


In 2018, amidst revelations about the hush money payment to Daniels, Cohen initially claimed personal responsibility for the payment, denying any reimbursement from the Trump campaign or organization. However, he later pleaded guilty to violating federal campaign finance laws, attributing the payment to Trump's directive. He provided evidence of reimbursement, including a $35,000 check from Trump's personal account.

Cohen's legal troubles culminated in a three-year prison sentence for various offenses, including tax evasion and lying under oath to Congress about a proposed Russian building project. He served over a year before his release.


Despite Cohen's pivotal role as a witness, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg faces risks due to Cohen's history of false statements. Cohen's testimony, especially from the civil fraud trial, may be exploited by Trump's defense during cross-examination.

Cohen, now married with two children, has acknowledged his wrongdoing and attributed much of it to his unwavering loyalty to Trump. He anticipates attacks from Trump and his allies, viewing them as predictable maneuvers.


"It's all part of the playbook," Cohen remarked in a 2023 interview with Reuters.


This relationship between Cohen and Trump’s new legal team could make or break the case for either side. As possibly the strongest anti-Trrump voice in the court, every one of his words will serve as fuel to the fire to put Trump behind bars. The ball now lies on Trump's side of the court, where he and his legal team must persuade the judge to remove Cohen as a witness. Using his disbarment, and record of lying under oath in the past, it’s the most favorable option for Trump to oust his biggest challenger.

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2) A Blue Streak for Republican Johnson Sasha Morel

In the wake of Iran's attack on Israel, the corridors of power in Washington buzzed with tension as House Speaker Mike Johnson grappled with the weight of his decisions. Conversations previously obscured from public view unfolded, revealing the intricate dance of political maneuvering that shaped Johnson's path forward.


One pivotal exchange occurred between Johnson and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, a behind-the-scenes dialogue that hinted at the delicate balance Johnson sought to strike. In this private call, Johnson expressed his readiness to advance foreign aid initiatives, despite the potential fallout from dissenting Republicans. Jeffries, keenly aware of the need for bipartisan support, probed Johnson on his ability to rally Republican backing for aid to Ukraine, setting the stage for a high-stakes negotiation.


Returning to the political cauldron of Washington, Johnson found himself thrust into a maelstrom of conflicting interests and fierce opposition from within his own party. Hardline conservatives, wary of Johnson's strategy to navigate the treacherous waters of foreign aid allocation, unleashed a barrage of criticism and threats. The looming specter of a motion to remove Johnson as speaker cast a long shadow over his deliberations, forcing him to tread carefully as he charted a course forward.


In the crucible of Capitol Hill, Johnson's resolve was tested as he grappled with the monumental decision before him. Wrestling with the competing demands of party loyalty and national interest, Johnson sought solace in moments of quiet reflection and prayer. As the gravity of his decision weighed heavily upon him, Johnson found himself torn between the imperatives of political expediency and moral conviction.


Ultimately, Johnson emerged from this crucible of uncertainty with a steely determination to pursue what he believed to be the right course of action. His decision to press ahead with billions of dollars in foreign aid, despite the tumultuous political climate, underscored his commitment to principle over pragmatism. The tense scenes that played out on the House floor served as a testament to the deep divisions and ideological fault lines that shaped Johnson's leadership.


Yet, amidst the chaos and discord, Johnson remained resolute in his conviction that history would judge him not by the vagaries of political expediency, but by the clarity of his moral compass. His embrace of Ukraine aid represented a remarkable evolution, driven by a confluence of personal conviction, geopolitical imperatives, and the weight of responsibility inherent in leadership.


As Johnson's foreign aid plan cleared legislative hurdles and garnered bipartisan support, the echoes of his decision reverberated far beyond the hallowed halls of Congress. In a time of unprecedented uncertainty and global upheaval, Johnson's steadfast leadership stood as a beacon of hope and resilience, a testament to the enduring power of principle in the face of adversity.

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3) The Debt Increases Yet Again…and For Israel! AmandaLesly Miranda

In a pivotal diplomatic maneuver, the United States has formally disclosed a substantial foreign aid allocation designated for the State of Israel, further cementing the enduring bilateral partnership between the two nations. The announcement, disseminated through official channels by senior representatives from both jurisdictions, underscores the unwavering commitment to fortifying regional security dynamics and fostering economic resilience.


The aid package, delineated with meticulous attention to detail and valued at a considerable sum, encompasses a multifaceted array of initiatives strategically designed to fortify Israel's defense infrastructure, catalyze economic growth, and propel technological innovation. Integral to this initiative is the provision of cutting-edge military apparatus and sophisticated technological platforms aimed at enhancing Israel's defensive capabilities against emergent and persistent threats.


In tandem with the aforementioned military provisions, the aid package allocates substantial resources towards bolstering the economic landscape of Israel. Specifically, targeted investments are earmarked for critical sectors such as transportation infrastructure, healthcare facilities, and educational institutions. Such strategic injections of capital are poised to catalyze sustainable economic expansion and foster socio-economic advancement within the Israeli populace.


Moreover, the aid package epitomizes a joint commitment to collaborative technological advancement, as the United States and Israel embark upon shared endeavors in domains including cybersecurity, renewable energy, and biotechnology. This concerted effort seeks to harness the collective expertise and ingenuity of both nations, positioning them at the vanguard of global innovation and technological progress.


The timing of this announcement is particularly salient, occurring amidst a milieu of regional complexities and geopolitical exigencies. By reaffirming its steadfast support for Israel's security and prosperity, the United States underscores the enduring depth and resilience of the bilateral partnership.


In reciprocation, Israel acknowledges and appreciates the United States' unwavering solidarity, recognizing the pivotal significance of the aid package in fortifying its strategic interests and safeguarding its national sovereignty.


The aid package serves not only as a testament to the shared values and strategic alignment between the United States and Israel but also as a tangible manifestation of their collective commitment to advancing peace, stability, and prosperity within the Middle East and beyond. 


Many people are opposed to this aid as it puts us further into debt and focuses on other countries other than ourselves. This is causing heavy division between parties and our legislative branch, and is causing a tear between the our society. Many wonder if these efforts are in vain, or if they will even succeed in the first place with the growing conflict.


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International Stories

3 key international stories for the week:

As I write this article, the world’s biggest election is taking place. More than a billion registered voters live in India, which recently became the world’s most populous country and is quickly becoming an economic powerhouse.

Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, will almost certainly win said election. His BJP party enjoys widespread support in India; it touts a Hindu-nationalistic message and has thrown multiple prominent members of the opposition in jail right before the election. He seems to be steering India away from democracy, and no one is standing in his way. This article will examine what can be done to stop him; it’s too late this cycle, but it is possible for the opposition to win at least something in the next one.

The Indian National Congress, also known as Congress or the INC, is the main political opposition to Modi’s BJP party. Founded in 1885, it opposed British rule, and under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi led India to independence from the United Kingdom. Ever since independence it has been a major force in Indian politics, most recently having a Prime Minister in 2014. Since then, however, it has been fraught with problems. Jawaharlal Nehru and his successors have ruled the party since Mahatma Gandhi was assassinated, and they have focused on the same dull talking points for decades and spend most of their time talking about how Modi is trying to censor them.


While there is undeniably censorship in India, the fact remains that Congress’s message is not resonating with Indians. Narendra Modi is perhaps the most skilled politician in India’s history, and has captivated large swaths of the population with his innovative economic policies. He is relatable, something that the old guard of the Congress party is not. Put simply, Congress is playing politics worse than the BJP is.

That being said, the best hope for a real Indian opposition is still the Indian National Congress, as most other opposition parties are highly regional and lack much common interest besides disagreeing with Modi. More than half of Indian voters support opposition parties, but these parties are not enough to make the opposition relevant on the national level.


Congress can focus on widespread, systemic issues in India, positioning themselves as a progressive alternative to Modi. To start this, they need a better communication system with voters. Modi has mastered the art of social media, and with India set to hit a billion smartphone users by 2026, no party that wants to have a chance of winning can ignore the influence of modern technology.


Modi successfully utilized WhatsApp in 2019 to such an extent that it became known as “The WhatsApp election”. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi (no relation to Mahatma Gandhi), the current leader of Congress, has not utilized social media nearly at all. This is not helped by the fact that Gandhi and other high-level party officials are much older than many key BJP members, making the party less relatable. If the Gandhi family were to step back from the helm, and allow some younger minds to come to the forefront of the party, they could help transform the social media presence of Congress, utilizing not just WhatsApp, but also other platforms such as YouTube and Instagram, the latter of which is particularly popular among younger voters. This could help Congress build a stronger base, making the party once again relevant in Indian politics.


Congress also needs regional stability as well. Regional parties usually control Indian states which do not have BJP governments, as their interests most closely align with voters in the region. For Congress, becoming more significant in these states will be key in becoming relevant nationally. Congress can specifically focus on more local issues in India to become the dominant party in these states, giving it more power within the federal government and weakening the grip of the BJP. This is something they are positioned to do, as alone Indian states cannot affect much, but if the same party controlled many states, it would be easier to collaborate on issues to force the government’s hand.


As successful as Modi has been in some areas, there are still gaping problems in India. Modi has not addressed the huge gaps in education in India; some students get extremely high levels of education, while others are still as underfunded and are in just as poor shape physically as they were 50 years ago. Other problems are also going unaddressed by the Modi government, which is intent on economic growth while ignoring all else. Congress needs to zero in on these issues; it needs to remind Indians that becoming China economically is not going to solve all India’s problems, and is not a reason to ignore all other problems in India.


Congress can remake itself into a functional and viable opposition party to Modi, but it won’t be easy. It would have to engage in sweeping reforms of itself, completely changing it as an institution. But with Modi becoming more and more authoritarian, Indian democracy depends on Congress to do exactly that, and if they are going to succeed, they will need all the help they can get.


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2) It’s Singa-pouring on Singapore’s “Democracy”  Paul Robinson

The city-state of Singapore has never seen a transfer of power between political parties. The People’s Action Party (PAP) has had a solid majority in Parliament ever since the country was ejected from Malaysia in 1965. Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister, steered Singapore into economic success over an extremely short period of just a few decades.


Lee made some questionable choices to get Singapore to prosperity, from detaining people without due process in the early days of the country to implementing extremely strict and controlling laws, earning Singapore the nickname “fine city” (a nickname referring to both monetary penalties and cleanliness). Most notoriously, Singapore still has a mandatory death penalty for people caught with drugs, which has reduced the number of addicts, but given Singapore the highest rate of per-capita executions in the world. All of these policies, from an efficient government that did not have any opposition to get in its way to having clean streets with no drugs, were meant to help Singapore become more business friendly. Singapore is the dream of any cooperation because it is run like a cooperation

Singapore is the ultimate example of Rousseau's social contract taken to the extreme. The PAP promises prosperity, and Singaporeans grant the PAP almost total authority to help achieve it. Because so far the PAP has done an excellent job at making Singapore prosperous, especially economically, it has never been ousted from power.


Ever since Lee stepped down in 1990, Singapore has had only two Prime Ministers: Goh Chok Tong, a senior member of the Lee government, ascended to power after Lee left; Lee Hsien Loong, Lee’s son, took power from Goh in 2004. A graduate of Cambridge, Lee had served in the Singapore Armed Forces before being elected to Parliament and becoming part of the cabinet of both his father and Goh.


Lee has held extremely similar positions on key issues as his father. However, this week, he announced that, after nearly 40 years of politics, he will step down. This positions Lawrence Wong to become Prime Minister at a particularly critical time in Singaporean history. 


The government has been heavily criticized for not helping the people more. This goes back to Lee Kuan Yew, who was worried of ruining his capitalistic dream and was thus virtually allergic to any policy that even resembled welfare. The government has always touted that “self-reliance” is the key to Singapore’s success, but that message is not resonating well with young Singaporeans; getting and retaining a job is more and more difficult as Singapore’s economy matures, and any job one might be able to get is usually not enough to cover cost of living in a city with notoriously high real estate prices. Thus, many Singaporeans would like to see the government take action to solve the issue even if it means more taxation. They see the systems of Europe or even the United States as something that would greatly benefit ordinary Singaporeans, while they argue that the PAP has focused too much on building a city for millionaires and billionaires to do business (hence the “Crazy Rich Asians”). 


As a result, 1 in 4 Singaporeans would like to see taxes raised on the wealthy to support a better welfare system, something that the party of Lee Kuan Yew seems extremely reluctant to enact.


Singapore is also, at its root, not at all democratic. This was, once again, intentionally set up by Lee Kuan Yew to allow the PAP to perpetuate their power, keeping government policies consistent. The purpose, as with literally everything else Lee Kuan Yew did, was to make Singapore friendly to businesses, even if that meant severe restrictions on freedom of speech and extreme gerrymandering would have to exist. Due to scandals which have undermined trust in the PAP, many see the social contract which the PAP has always had with the Singaporean people as no longer being useful. Many of these scandals seem very minor to those in other countries, but to Singaporeans who have lived their entire lives trusting the government, they signal a need for reform within the Singapore government. This could potentially happen in the form of more democratic elections, allowing the people to choose what policies they want rather than the PAP governing from the top down as they have always done.


For Singaporeans who want change, right now is the time that change would most likely be effective. With Mr. Wong coming into power half a year before Singapore holds elections in November, pressure will be on him to prove why the PAP should retain the near universal license it has on the government of Singapore. Under threat of democratic action against it, the PAP will have to choose between two options: it could engage in significant reform, changing decades-old policies like Singapore’s mandatory military service, mainly justified through Islamophobic rhetoric about its neighbors, welfare programs which are always laughed off for reasons set in the 1960s, and rethink its ultra-harsh laws on illegal immigration and drug trafficking. It could also engage in more gerrymandering, as it has always done, determined to tighten its grip on power and unwilling to recognize that 20th century solutions don’t always fit 21st century problems. Which path Singapore will take will be up to Mr. Wong.

3) Modi-fying the Modi Rule Sasha Morel

In the heart of Telangana's bustling landscape, amidst the grandeur of the Kaleshwaram lift-irrigation project, a seemingly inconsequential crack emerged. Little did anyone know, this minute imperfection would become the fulcrum upon which Sunil Kanugolu, the mastermind behind the opposition Congress party's election campaign, would pivot the political dynamics of the region.


Challenging the decade-long rule of the regional Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) party, led by K Chandrashekhar Rao, Congress found itself buoyed by a wave of public discontent fueled by allegations of corruption and nepotism. Riding this wave, Kanugolu, with his keen eye for strategic opportunities, seized upon the crack in the Kaleshwaram project as a potent symbol of the incumbent party's purported malfeasance.

For Kanugolu, elections are not merely won on the battleground of logic; they are emotive contests where sentiments reign supreme. In Telangana, the crack in the project's pillar became the focal point of a meticulously crafted narrative that underscored Congress's commitment to combating corruption and championing the interests of the common people.

The imagery of mock ATM machines, branded as "Kaleshwaram ATM," strategically placed across Telangana, captured the public imagination. Photos depicting Congress workers symbolically feeding fake currency notes into the "ATM," effectively the mouth of the state's chief minister, went viral, encapsulating the narrative of a project marred by alleged corruption and mismanagement.

But Kanugolu's election strategy extended far beyond mere symbolism. Through his consultancy firm, Inclusive Minds, he spearheaded a multifaceted campaign that not only highlighted Congress's promises of welfare schemes for various segments of society but also tapped into the prevailing sentiment of disenchantment with the ruling party.


The success of Kanugolu's approach was evident in the swift swing of public opinion towards Congress, culminating in a decisive victory that saw the party assume power in Telangana. It was a testament to Kanugolu's belief in the power of a singular, compelling narrative to mobilize support and drive electoral success.


Yet, Kanugolu's journey from a consultant with McKinsey to a key player in the political arena has been marked by twists and turns. A decade ago, he was instrumental in shaping Narendra Modi's prime ministerial campaign, leveraging data-driven strategies to propel Modi to power.

Now, a decade later, Kanugolu finds himself on the opposite side of the political spectrum, aligning with Congress in its bid to unseat Modi's BJP from power. However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges, both external and internal.


The Congress party, languishing in the political wilderness for a decade, presents its own set of hurdles. With limited parliamentary representation and internal factionalism, Kanugolu must navigate a complex landscape fraught with competing interests and power dynamics.


Despite these challenges, Kanugolu remains undeterred, his focus unwavering as he charts a course for Congress's resurgence on the national stage. His strategic acumen, honed through years of experience, is now directed towards identifying winnable constituencies and crafting tailored campaign narratives that resonate with voters.


In this endeavor, Kanugolu's consultancy, Mindshare Analytics, plays a pivotal role, providing invaluable insights and strategic guidance to Congress's election machinery. From conducting surveys to gauging public sentiment, Kanugolu leaves no stone unturned in his quest for electoral success.

But beyond the tactical maneuvering and data-driven strategies lies a deeper narrative of transformation and redemption. Kanugolu's journey from a behind-the-scenes consultant to a central figure in the political arena reflects not only his personal evolution but also the evolving dynamics of Indian politics.


As the countdown to the general elections ticks away, all eyes are on Kanugolu and his team as they endeavor to reshape the political landscape of India. With his characteristic blend of pragmatism and vision, Kanugolu stands poised at the cusp of history, ready to seize the moment and leave an indelible mark on the annals of Indian politics.

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