The Red Folder

Last updated October 21, 2024. 

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024. 

Domestic Stories

4 key domestic stories for the week:

1) Early Voting is More Popular Than Ever Lindsey Zhao

Election Day might not be for a few weeks, but for many voters across America, their ballot has already been cast. In some states, like Minnesota and Virginia, early absentee ballots have been open since late September, whereas early in person voting generally started in some states in early October. As of October 17, over 8.8 million people have already cast their vote early, with tens of millions predicted to follow in the weeks before actual Election Day.


The growing trend of voting before Election Day isn’t new-- in 2020, the number of early voters formally surpassed the number of Election Day voters for the first time ever. Here’s a look at some states that have impressed election analysts with turnout. 


The first day of early voting in Georgia was Tuesday, October 16. That day alone, more than 300,000 voters cast their ballots, doubling the state’s day 1 voting record and showing no signs of slowing down just 3 days later. 960,000 Georgia voters have cast ballots since early in-person voting began, nearly 20 percent of the total number who voted in 2020. Analysts offer several possible explanations for the sudden surge in early voting. Some believe it's due to concerns about mail-in ballot delays, which have affected past elections, while others suggest that voters want to avoid waiting in long lines on Election Day. Another view is that rising partisanship is motivating both Democrats and Republicans to vote as early as possible. The reality is likely to be a combination of many factors. 


Voting in North Carolina is following a similar pattern. Despite experiencing the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene a few weeks ago, early voters cast 350,000 ballots on Day 1. Despite road closures and building losses, local governments were able to open 76 polling stations across the state, just four fewer than originally planned. Exit polls show that roughly the same number of Democrats and Republicans have been casting early ballots in this state, different from 2020, when more Democrats took advantage of the opportunity. 


But don’t let early voting trends fool you. Remember its name-- it’s still too early to tell what party these crucial battleground states will lean towards by the end of Election Day. 


Another state that has sparked interest isn’t actually a core battleground state, like Georgia or North Carolina. It’s Virginia. Early voting has been open for weeks in the state, and similar to North Carolina, while Democrats have been significantly more likely to vote early in the past, that’s no longer true this year. 


In 2020, around 63% of the total votes in Virginia were cast before Election Day. However, early voting patterns varied significantly based on a city or county's political leaning. Democratic-leaning regions saw 70% of voters cast early ballots, whereas Republican leaning regions only saw about 50% early turnout. This year, however, analysts from NBC found no significant difference in partisan leanings when they examined early voting ballots, potentially foreshadowing a national trend. 


Earlier in June, before Biden dropped out of the presidential race, nearly 60% of Americans said the country’s best days were behind them, and voter turnout has traditionally been extremely low in American elections compared to the rest of the world. So, no matter the composition of early voters, Americans should be delighted that voters are energized enough in the first place to go to the polls. 


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2) The Seven Swing States, Explained Evelyn Ding

The election is only two weeks away, and the race is extremely close. Right now, polls predict Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning by a slight edge, with a 52% chance compared to Republican candidate Donald Trump’s 48% chance.


Because US presidential elections use the Electoral College system rather than the popular vote, swing states play an outsized role in deciding election outcome. With a minimum of 270 electoral votes to win, the nominees must pay attention to the 7 swing states: Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 


The swing states are anticipated to be defined by razor thin margins. That means in these states, every single vote counts. This makes it critical for presidential candidates—Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump—to campaign hard in these swing states to convince swing voters to 1) vote for them and 2) turn out to vote.  


But what are these swing states? Who are the important voter groups? What issues do they care about? 


Arizona

Something that sets Arizona apart is its geographic position—it shares a border with Mexico along the Southern border. In fact, Arizona is a state that receives more border crossing than Texas (making up 60% of all migrant apprehensions), even though Arizona’s border crossings are far less publicized than Texas. Arizona has a long strip of desert land compared to Texas’ treacherous Rio Grande river armed with National Guard troops.


 As a result, Arizona voters will have their eyes on one key issue: immigration.


Donald Trump has ramped up his aggressive rhetoric toward undocumented immigrants. News headlines have featured his recent attempts to demonize Haitian immigrants, saying:  “they're eating dogs, they’re eating the cats.” These attempts may sway some Arizona voters who are upset at the 250,000 migrant apprehensions at the border in the first 4 months of this year.


One other key voting group in Arizona is Native Americans. Despite a usually low voting turnout, Native Americans showed up in large numbers during the 2020 election to vote for Biden, motivated by frustration over Trump’s handling of COVID. In the Havasupai reservation, twice as many voters cast ballots in 2020 than in 2016, overwhelmingly in support of Biden. Furthermore, in reservations like Hualapai reservation, Biden outpaced Trump by a nearly 5-1 ratio. However, now that the pandemic is over, people are wondering if they will continue to be politically active.


Georgia

In Georgia, all eyes will be on young, minority voters who are more likely to vote Democrat. Black voters are especially likely to vote for Harris, as historical trends show Black voter turnout increases when there is an African American candidate. Data from the 2008 and 2012 elections shows that when Barack Obama, an African American, ran for president, African American turnout shattered records. In fact, Black turnout exceeded white turnout (69.1 percent to 65.2 percent) for the first time in history. 


However, there’s a troubling trend in Georgia that may impact results: certain lawmakers are attempting to disenfranchise voters. This is to counteract efforts during the 2020 election by voting rights groups like nonprofit Fair Fight Action who pushed toward increasing access to mail-in ballots for vulnerable elderly and low-income populations. This greatly increased voter turnout by 1.4 million absentee ballots. However, Georgia has recently enacted measures like beginning to restrict mail-in and absentee ballots, stopping organizations from bussing people to polling stations, and preventing people from giving water and refreshments to people in line. Voter disenfranchisement policies like these impact low-income voters the most because they often work long hours and are paid hourly, so putting in extra effort to drive to a polling station is a luxury they cannot afford. As a result, these policies may prevent turnout from the minority voters who Democrats are relying on to vote for Kamala Harris.


Michigan

In Michigan, one voting demographic to watch closely is the Arab-American population. Biden won Michigan in 2020 with the help of the Arab-American population, which makes up 3.5% of Michigan voters. While that may seem like a small number, every vote matters in Michigan, which was decided by a mere 2.8% percentage points in the 2020 election. 


While Arab-Americans showed up to vote Democratic in 2020, there is no guarantee they will do the same in 2024. Arab-Americans have expressed anger over the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the war in Gaza, where the war has killed an estimated 41,000 Palestinians. After accusing Biden of supplying weapons like fifty F-15 fighter jets to Israel, they showed their dissatisfaction by launching an “uncommitted” campaign during the Democratic Primary where 100,000 voters voted for “uncommitted” rather than Biden. This was a direct warning to Democrats about their prospects in the general election: Arab-American voters would vote for Trump or sit out altogether if their policies didn’t drastically change—which they haven’t. In an election where every vote matters, Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote through no-shows. 


Nevada

Nevada is the most diverse out of the swing states. 40% of the state is comprised of Asian, Black, and Latino voters who are more likely to support Kamala Harris.


A key issue in Nevada is the economy. Nevada has the highest unemployment out of any state at 5.4%, with people in cities like Las Vegas living on tips. As a result, higher prices can really hit home. Voters perceive Biden’s handling of the economy as poor due to inflation rates specifically in housing prices. Trump is trying to appeal to struggling voters in Nevada, through blaming the economy’s poor performance on Biden.


North Carolina

North Carolina is known for its growing Research Triangle, centered on its three universities, that is reminiscent of California’s Silicon Valley. There is a growing number of college educated voters which are historically predicted to favor Harris, where she leads Trump by up to 17 points.


While North Carolina has voted Republican in all but 2 elections in the last century, they voted for Democrats in 2008 and 2012, which was helped by a large African American population turnout. Republicans have been losing their edge though, as the last election was decided by less than 2 percentage points.


Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is an extremely valuable swing state, with 19 votes in the electoral college—the most out of all the swing states. In Pennsylvania, ½ of eligible voters are white working class voters. Their number one voting issue is the economy. Prior to the 2008 recession, many of these white working class voters held well-paying factory jobs where they ascended into the middle class. However, after the factories in the Rust Belt closed, they were forced into minimum wage jobs. As a result, inflation during the Biden administration hit them particularly hard. 


Wisconsin

Wisconsin has extremely thin margins. In every election since 2000, the Presidential vote has been decided by less than 1%. 


What sets Wisconsin apart is its large long-term immigrant population. Many are citizens or have children who are eligible to vote. As ethnic minorities predominantly lean Democrat by over a 50-50 majority, Kamala Harris is going to want to convince these voters to help them win Wisconsin.


Read More Here

3)  Teens are Giving Up Tobacco? Boyana Nikolova


Drug use was once believed to be the single greatest threat to teenager health in the US. For the past 25 years, however, Americans may have been overestimating how much of a danger (mainstream) drugs have really been for teens.


A new CDC report reveals that teen tobacco use has dropped to a 25-year-low, tobacco mainly being used in the form of cigarettes, cigars, and hookah pipes. Most notably, teen cigarette use reached the lowest percentage (1.4% of all middle and high school students) in the history of the CDC's surveying. This rapid decline in tobacco use is expected to continue in the future with current results already being so promising; from 2023 to 2024, the number of teenagers reporting tobacco use dropped by an amazing 550,000. Such momentum will be difficult to break.


Of course, the public remains partly skeptical. The COVID-era popularity of e-vape brands, like Juul and Smok, was sustained even after the pandemic and it has given rise to concern. Vape companies have been accused of using playful advertising and fruity, candy-like flavors that target youth and despite their claims of being healthier alternatives to cigarettes, the health risks have been undeniable. Elevated levels of stress, anxiety, depression; increased risk of cancer and a myriad of cardiovascular diseases; and more are all relatively short-term consequences of prolonged vape use. The long-term effects may be even more detrimental, as scientists continue to study vape-users into the future. 


But is vaping actually getting to teens? Despite the enticing packaging, teenagers have begun to abstain. Compared to 2023, the CDC report found that vape use fell from 2.13 million teenagers to 1.63 million this year (5.9% of all teens.) This historic drop will undoubtedly put strain on the vaping industry’s many for-profit companies, but above all, it will encourage even more teens to follow these trends and give up their vape. For the 2.2 million middle and high school students that still regularly use tobacco, it could well be a turning point.


Naturally, teenagers aren’t suddenly in the clear. Tobacco use remains a large problem given 1 in 10 high schoolers are current tobacco users, but especially dangerous is overall drug use, encompassing everything from tobacco to marijuana to over-the-counter drugs taken in excess. Overall, drug use among teenagers is relatively low and has held steady below the pre-pandemic levels of 2020 and before. Yet, high-risk drugs are posing a greater risk than before, even though they aren’t necessarily being used in greater quantities.


Overdose rates among children and teenagers have significantly risen in the past 5 years. This is in part due to a higher supply of potent drugs, but is also owed to prescription opioids which have become easier to misuse. With more teens overdosing than ever before, declining tobacco use shouldn’t just be considered a revolutionary, win-all answer. 


For now, Americans should be aware that addiction is beginning to lose its grip on youth. That in itself is a win, but it should be taken with caution. Despite the good news, American teens must stay vigilant. 


Read more here:

4) Subpoenaed: Robert Roberson Andy Choy

Down to the wire, the Supreme Court of Texas postponed inmate Robert Roberson’s scheduled October 17th execution after an urgent state legislature subpoena. One day earlier on October 16th, Roberson lost his appeals to Texas’ six-member Board of Pardons and Paroles —which voted unanimously against his case— and the United States Supreme Court. A judge in central Texas’ Travis County attempted temporarily blocking Roberson’s execution, only for the state’s Court of Criminal Appeals to overrule the judge’s order soon after. The Supreme Court’s contradictory ruling, announced approximately one hour prior to Roberson’s execution time, is supposedly the first incidence of one high court overruling another in Texas’ history.


In 2003, Roberson was sentenced to capital punishment for his two-year-old daughter Nikki’s passing on January 31, 2002. He was convicted of murder after a hospital investigation suspected Roberson assaulted his child and caused fatal blunt force trauma. During his trial in eastern Texas’ Anderson County, medical experts explained Roberson’s daughter suffered shaken baby syndrome, alleging Roberson shook his daughter and severely injured her head. Several witnesses testified they saw Roberson shake his child in the past. Although his expert witness conceded Roberson did shake his child, Roberson pleaded innocence, claiming his actions were not fatal. Following his conviction, Roberson unsuccessfully appealed his sentence multiple times.


Roberson’s case became controversial because of the shaken baby syndrome explanation for his daughter’s passing. Many scientists dismiss the shaken baby syndrome as an invalid medical theory. In addition to this, later evidence suggested his daughter suffered from preexisting chronic health problems such as pneumonia, and the pharmaceuticals doctors prescribed to Roberson’s child were likely dangerous. Roberson’s supporters argued the Anderson County trial failed to consider these alternative explanations before ruling on Roberson’s case. Meanwhile, state prosecutors reasoned those factors were not fatal to Roberson’s daughter in his place. Despite controversy, Texas’ Court of Criminal Appeals decided on January 11, 2023 against reevaluating Roberson’s case, maintaining their decision during subsequent appeals in autumn 2024.


84 legislators of Texas’ House of Representatives, medical experts, and other Roberson supporters sent a clemency petition to the state’s Board of Pardons and Paroles, hoping the board would recommend clemency to Governor Greg Abbott. The board refused Roberson clemency, prompting House legislators to last-hour subpoena Roberson on his execution day to delay capital punishment. While Roberson remains on death row, his execution will be delayed until he concludes testifying to the House about dubious scientific theories’ application to state law.


Read more here:

International Stories

4 key international stories for the week:

1) Cuba’s Fall to the Dark Side Boyana Nikolova


Cuba has had its fair share of dark moments in history, but last Friday, the Caribbean nation had one of its worst yet as the entire country was plunged into darkness. The main power plant, Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric, unexpectedly failed and in minutes, it left a cascading effect on the rest of the power grid. According to the Cuban Energy and Mining Ministry later that day, “a total disconnection” of the electricity system had occurred with no clear date by which it could be repaired.


This crisis doesn’t come without precedent, however. A series of failed government policies and more extreme US sanctions have contributed to the issue for decades. Some of the most notable changes come from the past 3 years alone. In January 2021, Cuba oversaw a major overhaul of its currency, the peso, which resulted in it rapidly devaluating. Inflation surged, economic growth plummeted, and the power grid took major blows in the process. Still, this new set of laws alone wouldn’t have been enough to put the country in crisis mode. A tougher US sanction regime came and compounded these problems.


Although the US has had a trade embargo against Cuba since the 60s, recent economic pressure from former president Donald Trump complicated matters. In one of the hardest sanctions to bear, Cuba was even added to the US’s list of “state sponsors of terrorism” among many other punitive measures. Across the board, foreign investment into the country dropped, growth continued falling, and already poor conditions soured. In consequence, inflation, fuel shortages, and national frustration were supercharged. Energy infrastructure faced even more pressure, but with its historically fragile nature, it was also the first to fall. What were once rolling blackouts and mere technical errors had culminated in a nationwide power plant failure.


Now, Cuba’s left picking up the pieces of its own demise. Around 10 million of its citizens have been left without electricity, hundreds of schools have been shut down, and nonessential businesses have forcefully stopped working, at least for the time being. In similar fashion, government offices and other public buildings have also taken precautions like limiting work hours or not operating at all. Needless to say, with a collapsed electricity grid, it’s way more than just the people that suffer. The economy takes the other major hit.


The blackout has brought about a temporary “economic paralysis.” For at least a few days, economic activity will be next to nothing as businesses, recreation centers, schools, and some government facilities shut down. On its own, this won’t cause fatal damage to the economy. The aftermath, however, may. Recovery will be a gradual process and given the climate until now - inflation, fuel and food shortages, import dependency, crumbling infrastructure, and more, - returning to Cuba’s previous “normal” might not be enough to restore order. Investment will need to be redirected to sectors like electricity lacking in it and updated technology will be crucial in preventing future technical errors like the one that has caused the current shutdown.


Going forward, Cuba will need to make great amends to its public sector, especially in the sector of energy. Thankfully, there is always light at the end of the tunnel.


Read more here: 

2) In Bulgaria, A Tale of Corruption and Authoritarianism Robert Zhang


On October 27, Bulgarians will return to the polls to elect a new parliament, the seventh time snap parliamentary elections have been held since 2021. The most recent elections, held this past June, did not see any party win a majority, and numerous attempts to form coalitions between reformist and establishment parties all fell short of securing a majority. While polls show that all individual parties are by no means near a majority, the far-right, pro-Russia Vazrazhdane (Bulgarian for “revival”) party is surging ahead in the polls. Meanwhile, press freedom is declining rapidly, and the country has failed to tackle organized crime. To understand how we got here, it’s important to understand the events that have unfolded in Bulgaria over the last several years.


Bulgaria’s current descent into authoritarianism began around 2009, with the term of former prime minister Boyko Borissov of the conservative GERB party, who ruled for nine of twelve years between 2009 and 2021. His government frequently intimidated journalists and repressed media freedom, and roughly eighty percent of print media and news coverage was controlled directly or indirectly by politician and oligarch Delyan Peevski. His rule also set back the creation of protections for journalists, such as dedicated reporting systems for threatened journalists. Most concerningly, as local and central authorities provide a substantial amount of funds for advertising for media outlets, they now often use them as leverage to minimize scrutiny of their activities.


Moreover, organized crime blossomed during Borissov’s term. He was suspected of having links to a front organization known as the SIC, which provided cover for members of the country’s influential mafia with roots in the Communist era. Members of the mafia have infiltrated every level of government, including the judicial system, eroding what little rule of law is left.


Borissov grew increasingly unpopular as a result of his policies. Eventually, in 2020, the country erupted into nationwide protests against corruption that lasted over 280 days. However, while he accordingly did not return to office following Bulgaria’s next elections in 2021, no parties were able to form a majority coalition. Since then, a series of caretaker prime ministers have ruled the country.


But while only one of those prime ministers has been from Borissov’s GERB party, the country’s political turmoil and constant electoral limbo has left even reformist leaders from achieving much change. In recent years, the country has seen an increase in the use of SLAPPs, or strategic lawsuits against public participation, commonly filed against journalists. These are usually defamation lawsuits with the intent of silencing media scrutiny, and are particularly effective due to the overwhelming financial burden they impose. They have even been weaponized by government officials: in April, Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov filed a defamation lawsuit against two investigative journalists who reported on a property deal he allegedly made with another corrupt politician.


Now, as Bulgarians grow increasingly exasperated with reformist leaders’ inability to form a government and achieve progress, the far-right Vazrazhdane party is pulling ahead in the polls, with one poll putting them at 15.5% of the vote and predicting a second-place finish for them. This is nothing short of terrifying, as the party is ardently pro-Russia, anti-U.S., anti-NATO, and anti-LGBTQ.  They have even attempted to pass legislation to punish any organization or individual that receives funding from abroad, modeled off a Russian law that was also recently copied by the Caucasus country of Georgia. Additionally, in what is likely an electoral publicity stunt, they introduced and actually succeeded in passing a bill banning so-called “LGBTQ propaganda and promotion” in public schools, further repressing an already marginalized demographic in a country where public opinion is largely hostile towards LGBTQ people and neither same-sex unions nor marriage is permitted. Should they finally succeed following the upcoming elections, it will be yet another blow to democracy and press freedom in the country.


While Bulgaria remains the poorest country in the European Union, its leaders are more preoccupied with politics than the people. And although Vazrazhdane may translate to “revival,” they will only bring the country closer to the jaws of death.


Read more here:

3) Hamas is Missing a Leader Rowan Seipp

In a moment that poetically sums up the entire course of the war, an Israeli drone captured the final moments of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Shortly before the drone extinguished the terrorist organization's leader, he threw a stick at the million-dollar death machine. The IDF released Sinwar’s poetic but ultimately fruitless endeavor to evade his demise on the internet. Israel hopes that by killing the leader of Hamas, they will dismantle the organization's structure and end the war sooner. In other words, Israel is abiding by the tried-and-tested concept of cutting off the head of the snake, believing the body will die with it. But will it work, and what effect will Sinwar’s death have on the region?

The primary question that has arisen because of Sinwar’s death is who will succeed him. Three candidates are seriously considered for the role: Mohamoud Al-Zahar, Mohamoud Sinwar, and Khalil al-Hayya. Al-Zahar is a founder and key member of Hamas; in the early 2000s, he served on the Palestinian Legislative Council. The knock against him is that he is widely considered considerably more hawkish than previous Hamas leaders. Sinwar—if you can’t already figure out—is the brother of Yahya Sinwar. He is incredibly similar to his brother, and if chosen, would likely kill chances for ceasefire talks. The final option is al-Hayya, the United States’s preferred candidate. Currently residing in Doha, al-Hayya has spearheaded negotiations with Israel and the U.S. With those three wrestling for power, Hamas is now caught at a precarious crossroads.

How does the death of Sinwar affect the war at large? In actuality, Sinwar’s killing throws Israel’s attempts to secure hostages into uncertainty. The problem lies in the fact that Sinwar was Israel's primary point of contact for hostage negotiations. Without him, Israel no longer has an option for negotiations. However, the really interesting fact about Sinwar’s death is that he was killed above ground. It is widely known that Hamas has a complex network of tunnels throughout Gaza. The fact that the organization's leader was killed while traveling overland indicates that Hamas has realized its tunnels are no longer as secure as they once thought.

Sinwar’s death is not a breakthrough moment for Israel or even a turning point in the conflict. It is, however, a moment that displays a significant weakness within Hamas. While Israel is no closer to winning the war than they were a month ago, Hamas is now in chaos. Depending on who wins the race for leadership within Hamas, the course of the war may be permanently altered.

   4) Election Meddling in Moldova Rowan Seipp

With only 3 million people, most Americans don’t think about Moldova. The Eastern European nation is often forgotten among the heavy-hitting democracies in the area. However, while most Americans (and this author) forget about Moldova, Russian government officials don’t. In the nation's most recent election, a fairly routine vote became shrouded in allegations of election fraud. But what happened, and why does the Moldovan election matter so much to the Russians?

Currently, Maia Sandu is the President of Moldova. She has been a trailblazer since her election in 2020. She is an admirable female icon and deserves significant praise—not just for her ability to govern the nation, but for how she's handled Russia. Sandu became one of the only Eastern European leaders to stand up to Putin and his expansion. She sought to join the EU and to incorporate pro-European principles more fully. However, in the most recent preliminary polls, she is unlikely to reach the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. Most international watchdogs have become suspicious of these results. Notably, this election also includes a pro-EU referendum on the ballot. Immediately after the first polls, suspicions of vote tampering began to emerge. Police have accused Ilan Shor, an oil tycoon, of paying off 120,000 voters to vote “no” on the resolution. Law enforcement in Moldova also claims to have uncovered a bizarre operation where hundreds of Moldovans were taken into custody in Russia and trained in rioting and civil unrest. These are serious accusations and raise a valuable question about why Russia cares so much about the Moldovan election.

Russia does not care about who runs Moldova; rather, it is concerned about its borders-- specifically, with Ukraine. Unless you have lived under a rock for the past two years, you know that Russia is at war with Ukraine. Russia has essentially calculated that if Moldova goes pro-EU, the West will share an even wider border with Ukraine. Another issue is the province of Transnistria. This breakaway, pro-Soviet province has long been problematic for the Moldovans. Transnistria considers itself the last remnant of the bygone Soviet era, making it a Russian ally to the detriment of Moldova. However, if Moldova begins the process of joining the EU, then Transnistria will become virtually useless. Russia needs Transnistria to maintain its encirclement of Ukraine. Essentially, this election threatens Russia’s advantage in the war and could place the West firmly back on top.

On the surface, Russia’s meddling in Moldova’s election seems strange. However, scratch the surface, and it becomes clear how necessary Moldova is to Russia’s attempts at world domination.

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