The Red Folder

Archived from March 4, 2024

Key stories for the week, brought to you by the distinguished newsman Sasha Morel.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

International Stories

3 key international stories for the week:

1) A New Path For Belt and Road Rowan Seipp

In the early 12th century, China was the center of the most profitable trade connection in world history. Almost a millennium later, in 2013, China unveiled a new project to make itself again the center of the world: the One Belt, One Road initiative that eventually became the Belt and Road Initiative. A decade later, however, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has had mixed success.

According to official Chinese data, China has signed over 200 Belt and Road cooperation agreements with 152 countries and 32 international organizations as of June 2023. According to the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University, the BRI has exceeded $1 trillion in cumulative participation since its inception in 2013. While on the surface this figure seems to be a success, it only tells half the story. In particular, China seeks to repair a damaged international image because of its predatory loans to BRI countries; for example, Sri Lanka and Zambia have defaulted on these loans. If the year was 2019, there would be no problem for China. However, in 2020, the world was ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic. China adopted a particularly aggressive zero COVID policy which had catastrophic economic consequences. The Chinese GDP grew only 2.7 percent in 2022, marking the lowest growth for the country since 1978. Low economic growth created the need for an internal review. This would cause the BRI, which until this point China had been spending billions on, to need a major change of direction.

Nowhere is this change more evident than in how Xi himself has addressed changes in the BRI’s approach. Xi has emphasized that BRI cooperation will move from “giant projects” to “fine brushstrokes,”. What does that mean? Well, let's look at current BRI projects.

This is The Alassane Ouattara stadium and it recently hosted the AFCON final between Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria. In other words, the biggest soccer match in Africa was held in a stadium built by China. The stadium was reported to have cost the XOF a net total of $143 billion (or $257 million, upon opening), of which China covered $63 billion. That's a project that provides no tangible return for the CCP. With a shrinking economy, projects like this are going away. China instead wants to make more economically tangible projects, such as the development of railroads and roads. Stadiums and ports do nothing more than curry favor with local elites in the name of political influence. The BRI is showing a willingness to change its path away from such projects and towards new, exciting ventures.

This is a survival method as China faces a series of economic hurdles and needs initiatives that actually make money for the nation. There is no better example of this than the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train. Originally slated to start in 2016 the project hit major roadblocks, hitting a $2 billion cost overrun due to problems in its land acquisition and feasibility study. Because of examples like this China is more likely to back private investment rather than risky government spending to make money.

For China, the window for global hegemony is closing; and for Xi’s landmark policy, the time has come for a different approach, to achieve different results.

Read more here:

2) Liberte, Egalite, F die AFD: The dangers of Extremism in German Politics Rowan Seipp

In 1789 the French Revolution took off under the slogan “Liberte, egalite, fraternity”, now almost two centuries later that symbol of defiance has become the symbol of mass anti-Nazi protests across Germany.

Now, the history of Germany and far-right groups is fairly evident. For Germans, the last far-right party to win a majority was the Nazi Party back in the 1940s. After the end of the war in 1945 the influence of the far right waned and by the 1950s they faded out of national politics. However, in 2021 a dangerous trend emerged. In the 2021 Bundestagswahl, a far-right party called the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) made significant gains in the German parliament, particularly in the old East.

To understand the far right's power in the old east Germany we have to understand the main policy of the AFD. According to data from the Guardian 2015, 1.2 million refugees from the Middle East and Africa arrived in Germany. The refugees received mixed reactions- however, in the Old West, the reaction was fairly positive. Unfortunately, in the East, it was exceptionally harsh. One reason is that few Saxons, especially in the Elbe River Valley, could watch West German television or listen to radio broadcasts from the other side of the Berlin Wall during the Cold War, limiting their exposure to a racially diverse and racially inclusive world that emerged next door. The result was that the Elbe Valley River was nicknamed the Tal der Ahnungslose (Valley of the Clueless). Along with a lack of knowledge, many in the East adopted a sense of victimhood and blamed the West for their misfortune. This was the perfect storm for the emergence of the AFD, which adopted a strictly anti-immigration policy.

This “storm” first made landfall last summer when the AFD won a run-off vote in the Sonnenberg district in the eastern state of Thuringia with its candidate garnering 52.8% of the vote. At first, this seems like a small victory. However, polling data from Reuters suggests that next time they could even win three seats, and by 2025 nominate a chancellor. On a national level, these victories firmly establish the AFD as the second-choice right-wing party behind the Christian Democrats.

Why exactly does this pose a danger? The temptation to brush off the AFD as a fringe extreme party is overwhelming. However, that danger becomes real when people like Alice Weidel, the likely chancellor nominee in 2025, have said the party wants to achieve "negative immigration" to Germany. It also argues that Germany is being "Islamified" and portrays itself as a bulwark for traditional Christian values.

With a party with these kinds of views winning elections, the traditionally held notion that these parties are fringe and out of favor has to be thrown aside. Instead, it is time to take the AFD and its ominous political beliefs as a serious threat that holds actual sway in one of Europe's most powerful nations.

Read more here:

3) One Sea, Two Sea, Red Sea but not New Sea Roshan Shivnani

ThFor months, the Houthi rebels, a Yemenese backed militia, have stirred tension in the Red Sea. Since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas, they were one of many militant groups to further the conflict outside of the region. But it may have escalated the war's impacts to the global stage because as quantified by the Real Economy, 15% of all global trade occurs through the Red Sea, with the sea being even more important for regional actors like Egypt.

To respond to such an issue, many global shippers decided to back out of the region in its entirety. In fact most large shipping firms, since December 15th of last year, have stopped using the Bab el-Mandeb straits for trade with Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. But due to the immense importance of the route itself many other shipping companies decided to take the risk and continue sending ships to the region.

Unfortunately for those companies, the Houthi rebels have sent a clear message back. On March 3rd Rubymar, which was an ordinary cargo carrying fertilizer to help grow food in nearby countries, was sunk by the Houthi rebels. What was perhaps even more surprising was the fact it wasn’t a US ship or even one belonging to adversaries of the militia- it was a Belize ship that even had a flag on top to indicate its owner.

While many continue to view it as a continuation of poor economic conditions in the sea there’s another issue that hasn't quite seen the press coverage it deserves- the environmental ramifications of the ship sinking. It contained a whopping 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer and an estimated 7,000 barrels. Unfortunately that has had the tragic yet expected damage, with the attack and spilling causing an estimated 18-mile (29 km) oil spill.

The environmental losses are something that’s weighing on the international community, as worry continues for what will happen to future ships trying to cross the region. The disaster has now worsened to the point that Yemen’s internationally recognized government called for other countries and maritime-protection organizations to quickly address the oil slick and avert “a significant environmental disaster” despite backing the militia causing it in the first place. Ultimately the event drew eyes back to the conflicted area, leaving governmental officials and ordinary citizens ready to sea what happens next.