The Red Folder

Archived from March 18, 2024

Key stories for the week, brought to you by the distinguished newsman Sasha Morel.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

International Stories

3 key international stories for the week:

1) A Dove turning into A Hawk: The Changing French attitude toward Ukraine Rowan Seipp

For French troops, it has been over 80 years since they last marched through Europe on the path of war. Since the battles in Paris and Calais, the French army has been largely dormant in the European sphere. However, that might be coming to an end. This can all be traced to a sudden and dramatic U-turn in the words of Emmanuel Macron. The French president has experienced a metamorphosis, going from a peace-loving “dove” to a war-mongering “hawk”.

On February 21st at the Champs Elysees, Macron made the bold declaration that "in the coming year, I'm going to have to send guys to Odessa." However, to understand why this statement caused something of an international incident, we have to go back two years. In 2022, when this brutal conflict began, Europe was split into two camps. Some European leaders, like the United Kingdom's Boris Johnson, pledged weapons and support. While Macron attempted to ease tensions, he alienated Ukrainians by insisting that Russia deserved “security guarantees.” and that Ukraine joining NATO was a matter of decades. This was ultimately part of a misconception about Russia’s leader. In a 2019 interview with the Economist, Macron mapped out a picture of how he believed a logical Putin would ultimately realize that he would need to form “a partnership project with Europe.” However, nearly two years into the war, it is clear that a “logical” Putin has no interest in negotiations.

Two years later the political seas have shifted in Paris. The French president is now one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, pledging support “until victory,” seeking to lead on issues such as NATO membership and military support. Macron has even changed his position on NATO enlargement- according to officials inside the French government his ambitions for enlargement have already been dubbed “Sorbonne bis”, in a reference to a policy-setting Europe speech Macron gave at the Sorbonne University in 2017. Importantly, French aid has begun to ramp up, after Politico wrote that France gave the U.K. permission to export Franco-British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, which was followed by deliveries of French long-range SCALP-EG cruise missiles. With Macron’s potential promise to send troops to Ukraine, it's clear that the leader has had a reversal in opinion.

It’s easy to be excited by the fancy words- however, Macron's pledge might have a simpler aim. Europe is facing the reality of a USA that isn't as forthcoming with foreign military aid if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and with no real European leader, Macron might be attempting to take the lead and become Europe’s new “leader” on an international stage.

The French army hasn't marched on the warpath in Europe since 1940 and that isn't looking likely to change. What is changing is the French attitude toward the war, going from a Dove to a Hawk.

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2) From a Tourist to a Political Hotspot: China’s power struggle in the Maldives Roshan Shivnani

Since the end of COVID-19, many nations have been able to “return to normal” and kick-start new initiatives at home and abroad, but unfortunately for China, the narrative panned out very differently. As the pandemic and other global events continue to wreak havoc on China and its strategic partners, China has been forced to reconcile one of its biggest geopolitical weapons: the BRI- or the One Belt One Road Initiative. However, a new move in their foreign policy involving a new relationship with the Maldives may just catalyze that very initiative and much more heading into the future.

While the Maldives is normally seen as an international destination for tourism with under half a billion citizens, political actors see its importance as a proxy to control nearby shipping lanes through the Indian Ocean. In recent meetings, Xi Jinping expanded on his interest in launching the Global Development, Security, and Civilization Initiatives as part of the BRI in the nation. But now he’s willing to stake China’s resources on that claim and in the recently announced partnership with the Maldives China agreed to provide free military assistance to the nation.

Their modern development and attempts to control the economically and geographically valuable region won’t be uncontested, however. India has also seen the immense opportunity in the region- so much so that they’ve pursued development themselves. Whether it be 77 Indian soldiers, 12 medical personnel, two helicopters, or a Dornier aircraft to allow for maritime surveillance, India has already lent an olive branch to the nation.

Collectively these conditions put the Maldives in the spotlight as two of the world’s quickest-developing superpowers continue to vie for control in the area. Yet, these challenges didn’t cause China to back down, rather they caused them to double down by using their infamous large-scale infrastructure projects in the region which occurred through the $200 million China-Maldives Friendship Bridge. All in all, the two countries signed 20 agreements that included cooperation on nearly all avenues of growth, for example, $127 million in aid to develop roads in the capital Male, or building 30,000 social housing units.

In the bigger picture, these changes don’t just affect the Maldives but also nations who get caught in the crossfire between China and India's escalating relations. These tensions don’t cause just one-time events, but a collection of them- from India sparking aggression after intercepting an illegal Chinese shipment of military technology to Pakistan, and China abandoning Sri Lankan investment after Indian pressure. So, while the Maldives is often regarded as a perfect spot for vacation and relaxing, for China and India, it’s anything but.

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3) Russians are Putin Up with Another Election Sasha Morel

The voting booths have closed across Russia, sealing the fate of another term for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has clinched his fifth consecutive term in office through a contentious national plebiscite.

However, the recent three-day presidential vote wasn't so much about democratic principles as it was about cementing Putin's grip on power. For the Kremlin, a decisive victory in the first round not only bolsters Putin's legitimacy but also sends a strong signal: Putin's aggressive stance towards Ukraine enjoys widespread support among Russians.

In a pre-election address to the Russian populace, Putin called on voters to participate in the electoral process as a demonstration of national unity. "I am convinced that you understand what a difficult period our country is going through now, and what difficult challenges we face in almost all spheres," Putin remarked. "And in order to continue to respond to them with dignity and successfully overcome difficulties, we continue to need to be united and self-confident."

He emphasized the notion of national unity, portraying the people of Russia as one large family. This sentiment was echoed following the closure of the polls, with Putin addressing a crowd of enthusiastic campaign activists, underscoring the unity of Russian citizens who turned out to vote.

Yet, amidst the rhetoric of unity, Putin vaguely hinted at "a lot of tasks ahead of us" post-re-election, leaving observers pondering what lies in store for Russia.

Speculation abounds regarding potential shifts in government structure or policy directions. Some wonder whether a renewed mandate for Putin translates to an unrestrained pursuit of his agenda, particularly concerning the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin's confidence on the Ukrainian front seems bolstered by recent military developments, particularly the capture of key eastern Ukrainian towns. Moreover, with wavering Western support for Ukraine, Putin finds himself armed with additional rhetorical ammunition.

The fate of Russia's opposition also hangs in the balance. Putin's mention of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, albeit unusual, did little to signal a softening stance towards dissent. The crackdown on opposition voices appears set to continue unabated.

Predicting Putin's next moves remains a daunting task. While short-term factors like economic resilience and political consolidation seem to favor him, Russia's longer-term challenges – demographic decline, war costs, and the fragility of autocratic rule – pose enduring concerns that won't vanish with another term in office.