The Red Folder
Archived from January 15, 2024
Key stories for the week, brought to you by the distinguished newsman Sasha Morel.
Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.
International Stories
3 key international stories for the week:
1) From Dirigiste to Délégué: France’s role in the EU Sasha Morel
After Angela Merkel left power, the once Germany dominated sphere in the European Union has been up for grabs. It would seem to be that now, Emmanuel Macron and the French government has stepped into the primary position for Europe’s leader. He’s using this position to alter the goals for the European Union, and the rest of the continent as well.
The EU’s choices have become distinctly more French, seeing a strongly relaxed economic and fiscal policy. The EU has seen less trade deals with major players (as France tries to distance themselves and the EU from the US and China), which has been beneficial to larger countries that are well established, yet has challenged Eastern European and lower GDP nations who primarily rely on foreign trade to be able to afford costly defense and social policies.
France’s relaxed view on politics has, for better or for worse, helped far left and far right governments and political parties gain traction in elections and other sectors of politics. Their laissez-faire style on alliance forming and community has allowed far right parties in Spain to begin winning local elections, it’s opened the door for Geert Wilders from the Netherlands, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Donald Tusk in Poland, and other very conservative or very liberal politicians (and most importantly their policies) to take stand in Europe.
France’s new leadership of the EU still needs to be tested, yet their new view of Europe’s future will be quite different from the tight sphere of politics of the Merkel era.
Read more here:
2) Havoc feat. the Houthis Lindsey Zhao
It is fairly well known that Hamas, the Palestinian group behind the horrific October 7th attacks on Israel, receives nearly $350 million in military and financial aid from Iran’s government. They’ve been dominating most of the headlines about Israel and Gaza in recent weeks. But their fellow extremists, the Houthi rebels, who have been fading from global headlines in recent months and also receive millions of dollars from Iran, have retaken the bulletins due to their antics in the Red Sea in recent weeks. The Houthi rebels are most known for their rebellion for power in Yemen, beginning in 2004, against the current internationally acknowledged government, turning the country into one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.
In a show of support for Hamas in their fight against Israel, the Houthis have begun to launch missiles and conduct raids on seaborne trade going through the Red Sea. They’ve already carried out over 26 attacks since November 19th. This is a huge problem for the world- nearly 15% of global seaborne trade passes through this one channel, and it’s a crucial connector for trade between Europe/US and Asia. The only other way to get trade from the two continents is to go around the southern tip of Africa, a trip that takes weeks longer and millions of extra dollars in costs- and a bunch of annoying bureaucrats.
Fears over potential attacks has led some of the biggest shipping companies in the world to move ships out of the Red Sea- traffic through the area has fallen 28% in the first week of the new year compared to the same point in 2023. They’ve also caused traffic to one of Israel’s biggest ports to fall a shocking 85% percent. Something to note, though, is that so far, we haven’t really seen the Houthis targeting ships indiscriminately- all the ships targeted so far have had some form of connection to Israel, or at least the Houthis believe they do. They also haven’t been targeting oil shippers (vastly important in the Middle East), but supply concerns did have oil prices fluctuating a bit. Not super comforting either, but the good news is that the US, along with over a dozen other countries, have created “Operation Prosperity Guardian” (oooh, scary…) to hit back against the Houthis, threatening international consequences.
Looking from the outside in, it seems almost ridiculous (and it kind of is) that the entirety of the share of countries that depend on Red Sea trade have just allowed these attacks to continue- but the solution isn’t so simple. Hitting back at Houthi rebels in Yemen risks escalating conflict in the already war-torn country and is unlikely to actually enact change. It could also bring the Israeli war further into the Middle East, something that no country wants. But in fact- just before publishing this brief, the US and UK began doing the exact thing mentioned above- carrying out widespread military strikes against over a dozen targets in Yemen. In the coming days, we’ll see if the Houthis get the message, or if Yemen is destined to be plunged into worse fighting.
Read more here:
3) Who will Tai-win the Election? Lindsey Zhao
By the time this newsletter gets published for the week, the election (scheduled for Saturday, January 13) will be closely approaching. By the time some of you read this article, it might already be over. Nevertheless, it’s important to focus on this tiny island nation that is inadvertently challenging one of the biggest and most powerful military forces in the world. I’m sure we all know the basics of Taiwan’s fight for independence. If not, head to my favorite source ever, Wikipedia. For years, presidential elections have revolved largely around the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty from China; incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party), who is stepping down due to term limits, has refused to acknowledge China’s claims of jurisdiction over the nation. While this year, there will also be elections for the legislature, the presidency is by far the most spotlighted.
There are three key candidates you need to know about- the current frontrunner Lai Ching-te of the DPP, main opposition candidate Hou You-yi (or Ho You-ih) from the conservative Kuomintang (KMT), and wild card Ko Wen-je of the newly formed Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Taiwanese politics can get confusing fast, so here’s a quick brief about each candidate and why you care:
Lai Ching-te (aka William Lai): Once called a ‘hoodlum’ by Chinese officials, he is the continuity choice of the current ruling party- the most pro-independence/anti-China candidate. Some US officials fear if elected, he could provoke rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait because China has said it will not work with a DPP government and reeeeally hates him and his running mate. His party is often blamed for poor housing/economic conditions after 8 straight years in power. Only leading by a narrow margin. Veteran politician. Current vice president under Tsai Ing-wen.
Hou You-yi: More Beijing-friendly and wants warmer economic and diplomatic ties with China- but no one really knows because he won’t actually answer questions about China. This has led to fears that he essentially doesn’t know what he’s doing when it comes to foreign policy, something that’s…really bad for a Taiwanese president. His party hopes that his ‘everyman’ personality will appeal to the younger generation. Current New Taipei City Mayor & former police chief.
Ko Wen-je: The only one who releases rap videos (he’s got my vote!), this candidate brands himself as a third choice between the first two candidates, although he is more ideologically aligned with the KMT. Popular among young voters after supporting the 2014 ‘Sunflower Movement’, he formed the TPP in 2019 to challenge the two main parties. Similarly to Hou, he wants a defrosting of Beijing Taiwan relations. Former Taipei mayor & surgeon.
But increasingly, voters seem to care more about domestic issues as well. Although inflation is only at 2.92% in Taiwan, the cost of living is soaring in certain cities as wages have relatively declined but the cost of housing is growing more expensive- a Guardian poll found that over a third of all voters said economic development was their biggest concern going forward. Lai and Hou have both promised to raise the minimum wage in response. Citizens are also worried about Taiwan’s unusual dependency on energy imports (it imports 97% of its energy!), making them vulnerable to energy supply fluctuations. China is putting intense pressure on the island as it watches the votes, leading to accusations of psychological warfare from some Taiwanese political analysts. Now, more than ever, it's crucial to watch Taiwan closely.
Read more here:
The Equality in Forensics News Brief is brought to you by Sasha Morel and the News Brief Team:
Lindsey Zhao
Roshan Shivnani
Rowan Seipp
Paul Robinson
AmandaLesly Miranda
Alex Ramirez
Anthony Babu
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