The Red Folder

Archived from February 5, 2024

Key stories for the week, brought to you by the distinguished newsman Sasha Morel.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

International Stories

3 key international stories for the week:

1) A Fight for Palestine’s Future Lindsey Zhao

This isn’t an article about the conflict in Gaza as it currently stands- you can find an abundance of articles detailing the atrocities in the territory. This is to explain what could come next for Gaza as an independent state, or an impoverished possession.

There are two proposed possibilities for an end to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First, the one state solution- essentially, merging the entirety of Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank to form one united country. There are two versions of this- an authoritarian Jewish state that pushes Palestinians rights far down (the ideal of only a few far-right Israelis) or a single democratic state, where Arab Muslims would likely end up outnumbering Jews (because of different birth rates), likely ending a Jewish state. Neither is currently acceptable for the majority of participants in the conflict.

Second, there is the two-state solution- the creation of an independent Israel and an independent Palestine. Think tanks the like of Carnegie, the CSIS, and more have all argued that this is the only feasible path for peace; still, a Pew survey found last year that more Israelis and Palestinians have grown skeptical of the two state solution and the ability of the two peoples to coexist peacefully (Israelis saw a decline of 9% support just this year, for example) as conflict has worsened.

Current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised the continued assault on Gaza’s territory, and has promised to keep military and political power in Gaza in the hands of the Israelis when the current conflict ends. While the US has recently put more pressure on Netanyahu to accept an independent Palestinian state and to take more caution in his military assault, Netanyahu has staunchly refused to do either.

To be clear, the US (and much of the rest of the world) supports a two state solution. That’s where the current events come in. Recently, the UK’s top diplomat stated that Britain could potentially recognize an independent Palestinian state after a ceasefire and Hamas withdrawal in Gaza before a peace deal is reached with Israel. That’s a huge step for a UN Security Council member that has continued to support Israel’s military campaign. The US, for its part, this week announced sanctions on Israeli settlers in Palestinian territory who have been attacking Palestinians, placing visa bans and financial sanctions on settlers that do so. Growing concerned about the state of Gaza’s human rights, Mexico and Chile referred Israel’s actions to the ICC itself for the possibility of war crimes- this comes a few weeks after South Africa officially brought a case to the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide.

Slowly, Israel’s leading allies (and critics) are turning to a future beyond the conflict.

Palestinian civilians are actively in desperate need of basic human rights, shelter, food, and water that the international community is still slow to give. Israeli families are mourning the loss of their family members killed or kidnapped since October 7th. But the longer this conflict drags on, the less of a chance there is at true, long lasting peace the day after the war.

Read more here:

2) A Fight for Israel’s Future Paul Robinson

This isn’t an article about how the current situation in Israel stands- you can find an abundance of articles about the failures of the Netanyahu government in handling the war with Hamas and protecting checks and balances. This is to explain what could come next for Israel after Netanyahu leaves, either as a free democracy or an autocratic state.

In recent months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has become one of the most hated leaders in the world. He is now more unpopular than any leader in Israel’s history, and it’s not hard to see why. He allowed millions of dollars to flow into Gaza, allowing munitions to be made which weakened the effectiveness of Israel’s defense systems. He ignored numerous warnings from intelligence officials, preferring to spend his time trying to destroy democratic institutions in Israel. He has ignored the terms to repatriate hostages held by Hamas, leaving families of the hostages bereft. Perhaps most ironically of all, he has failed in his nearly singular campaign promise: to keep Israel safe. The consequences of his failure has been the death of nearly 1,500 Israelis, with 132 hostages still held by Hamas.

All to say, the momentum to give Netanyahu the boot exists, and good riddance. However, the future of the State of Israel, after the most far-right government in Israeli history, remains uncertain. Netanyahu broke down years of progress in Israel, increasing the power of the executive branch and weakening the Israeli courts. Should Israel’s next PM fail to stop, or worse, encourage, the freefall of Israeli democracy, the damage could be irrevocable. The election to replace Netanyahu could be the most crucial in the history of Israel. It needs to get on the right track.

Israel’s left is ill-equipped to take governance of the country. The progressive Zionist Meretz party, the main left-wing party for Israeli Jews, has been in freefall for three decades as they have consistently raised issues that appeal to a very narrow base of Israeli voters. The Palestinian nationalist party Balad, on the other hand, quite simply, will never get the votes it needs from Israeli Jews. Back in 2022, both parties lost their seats in the Knesset entirely, so clinching the majority is simply not a realistic prospect. This positions Israel to have a right-wing successor, most likely someone inside the Netanyahu government who is willing to change the policies that the public does not like.

Benny Gantz fits this niche perfectly. Throughout 2023, with Netanyahu making one extreme move after another, Gantz, the former IDF chief and founder of the Israel Resilience Party, has become popular among Israel’s right as an alternative to Netanyahu. He would certainly be more stable than his predecessor; he supports a two state solution, which would obviously be needed in order to stabilize the whole region in the wake of the Gaza war. He opposed the unfreezing of millions of dollars of assets belonging to ultra-Orthodox and pro-settler far-right parties, sparking discussion over whether he had the guts to try to oust Netanyahu.

Should Gantz ascend to the top job, it is possible that Israel’s war could reach a peaceful end. Gantz realizes that destroying Hamas is virtually impossible, and that the crisis requires a different approach. Gantz could potentially order a ceasefire, offering the chance for reconciliation with Israel’s neighbors, likely with the help of the United States. This could potentially position Israel as an ally to many Arab league countries, particularly those that have close ties with the US such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia in particular was working towards normalization before the war, and Gantz could do his best to revive the rapprochement plan. The undoing of decades of hostility between Israel and the Arab world will not be easy. However, it would be necessary to ensure Israel’s stability. Its current state lends itself to strongmen, as, if tensions stay the same as they are right now, Israel will only become more unstable, undemocratic, and, perhaps most importantly, unpopular in the international community.

Gantz may face an even bigger challenge on the domestic front. Over the course of a year, Netanyahu has done inconceivable damage to Israeli institutions, particularly the judiciary. The separation of powers in Israel, between the PM, Knesset, and Judiciary, was weakened as the independence of the judiciary was severely damaged in Israel to keep Netanyahu in office. Whether Gantz will restore the checks and balances Israel had before Netanyahu is anyone’s best guess.

That being said, the Israeli public did not at all approve of Netanyahu’s changes, so it is possible that it would be in Gantz’s best interest politically to undo them. Therefore, whether Gantz decides to further the destruction of democratic institutions or stop the democratic backslide as the people want him to will determine how the State of Israel will function decades into the future, affecting literally every aspect of the Israeli government. This decision will potentially be the most important by any Prime Minister in the history of Israel. It is crucial that, in the likely event that he becomes Prime Minister, Benny Gantz puts his country and its people over his own political interests.

Read more here:

3) Salvation for El Salvador? Lindsey Zhao

On February 2nd, 2024, El Salvador overwhelmingly re-elected wannabe authoritarian leader Nayib Bukele as president for his second consecutive term. Yes, the very same Bukele who, in April of 2022, suspended fundamental rights like the right to a lawyer in order to crack down on the gang epidemic in his country, resulting in the arrest of over 72,000 people- many of whom were innocent. Today, El Salvador has the highest incarceration rate in the world, and thousands of people are treated inhumanely in federal prisons. Still, he remains wildly popular among his citizens, despite the wide range of horrific human rights violations he stands accused of by international organizations like the Human Rights Watch or Amnesty International. Why? It’s important to first understand the state of life people were forced to endure under previous governments, and what Bukele did to change that.

Before Bukele came to power, the more traditional politics of other political parties failed to rein in the massive crime and gang problem that engulfed El Salvador. The weakness of past political leaders and US intervention allowed gang leaders to have the ability to control daily life in El Salvadorian neighborhoods. For decades, El Salvador had one of the highest homicide rates in the world, over 103 deaths per 100,000 people- the most violent country in the Western Hemisphere. Afraid for their lives, El Salvadorians began to migrate north en masse and the economy continued to take a massive hit.

Thus, to citizens, Nayib Bukele’s extremist crackdown on gangs (at the cost of arresting innocents) wasn’t just inhumane- rather, it was a necessity borne out of past administrations' abject failure to protect the rule of law for their people. Today, more than a quarter of El Salvadorians live in poverty. Combine this with fearing for their lives every day, and you get the perfect recipe for an authoritarian Bukele, who promised civilians he would end political corruption, restore the economy, and crack down on the gang crisis.

Since he took power, crime has indeed gone down, and gang leaders are losing power. Now, homicide rates are at its lowest since 1992. Unfortunately, the long term sustainability of such policies remains questionable, as mega-prisons are becoming overloaded and obviously, you can’t keep blindly arresting civilians without a care for democracy forever.

El Salvador is slowly driving out its gang members- but at a huge cost to human rights in the country. While Nayib Bukele may remain popular for now, there’s no guarantee he’ll stay that way in the future.