The Red Folder

Archived from April 8, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by the distinguished newsman Sasha Morel.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

International Stories

3 key international stories for the week:

1) Tensions Arise Between the US and Niger Ella Fulkerson

Niger's journey towards development since its independence in 1962 has been influenced by its relationship with the United States. Being one of the least developed nations, Niger sought protection and safety from the US. However, following a recent coup d'état, the new government of Niger is uncertain about the US's intentions towards them. Despite the longstanding partnership between the two countries, recent events have led to escalating tensions, potentially paving the way for a shift in Niger's foreign policy.

In July of last year, the democratically elected President of Niger, Mohammad Bazoum, was deposed by the military. The military justified the coup because of economic instability and increased security concerns. Despite the coup, the United States initially declined to recognize it as one, as doing so would necessitate the cessation of all aid to Niger. This decision had significant repercussions, contributing to increased danger within the country. Following the coup's success, General Abdourahamane Tchiani proclaimed himself the leader of a new military junta, and the United States ultimately acknowledged the coup. The shift in leadership, along with the temporary withdrawal of the United States from the country, has led to a problematic diplomatic situation that both countries are attempting to navigate. Now, politicians in Washington believe that the government has lost influence and power in Niger.

When senior U.S. officials descended on Niger’s capital city, Niamey, in March, they had little idea that the sands of the Sahara were shifting under their feet. The purpose of the visit by US officials to Niger was to salvage a security relationship that would enable the US to maintain its drone base in the country. This is despite the US suspending military aid to Niger's new coup government. This visit was the highest-level visit to the country since Niger's military leaders overthrew Washington's preferred ally in the region last July.

Despite efforts by politicians, after a dangerous three-day stay in Niger, officials still had yet to meet with the new-found leader of the country, and they inevitably left without communication. A day later, a junta spokesperson announced the termination of the military partnership that Washington had come to secure. Over the last decade, the United States has spent nearly $1 billion in Niger, helping to provide a vast range of assistance to deliver clean water and health care, counter the pernicious effects of climate change, and train and equip a beleaguered army against the highest concentration of jihadi attacks in the world.

The loss of the diplomatic relationship with Niger marks the end of an essential asset in combating Russian and Chinese influence in the West African region as well as a vital security asset in the war on terror. One of the biggest challenges the United States will now need to combat is regaining influence in the African region. Niger was a key partner for Washington's fight against Islamist insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more, and losing the relationship the US had with them will likely cause a rift in the fight against insurgents worldwide.

For years, but especially in recent months, the relationship between Niger and the United States has been long-standing and complex, with recent events leading to escalating tensions and a potential shift in Niger's foreign policy. The coup and subsequent change in leadership have strained diplomatic relationships between the two countries, and the termination of the military partnership has significant implications for both security in the region and the fight against terrorism worldwide, highlighting the importance of maintaining strong diplomatic relationships with countries that play a vital role in addressing global security challenges.

Read more here:

2) Sall Sells Senegal to Sonko’s Sidekick: A Young New Leader Anthony Babu

Macky Sall’s exit from the Senegalese government was a perfect representation of his tenure. Two months of turmoil, uncertainty, and sensationalism, followed by an underwhelming exit from the presidential palace in a Toyota. Indeed, while Senegal’s former president left an eventful past, the outcome of his policies in everyday Senegalese society remains relatively minute.

Former President Macky Sall changed everything Sengal thought it knew during his twelve-year tenure. His policies of high-speed rail construction, electricity expansion, airport development, and employment led Senegal to rise from low-income to lower-middle-income status, according to the World Bank.

However, if Senegal’s economic growth represented the nation’s beautiful dry season from November to May, then the end of Sall’s tenure was akin to Senegal’s mid-year monsoon season. Sall’s government was mired in corruption scandals, leaving it incapable of quick response to the nation’s plights. Even though the economy grew, the government failed to reduce poverty. Sall violently suppressed protests and imprisoned opposition leaders, creating political and civil unrest. Most importantly, he imprisoned leading opposition figure Ousmane Sonko for nonsensical charges of “corrupting youth,” inadvertently sparking more opposition to his rule.

These issues came to a head in mid-February, when Sall postponed the country’s elections, triggering mass social and political unrest from those who deemed the delay to be a “constitutional coup.” However, while Africa’s most prized democracy appeared to be in jeopardy, the Constitutional Court of Senegal demanded elections to be held in March, and Sall reluctantly obliged.

A last-minute amnesty deal made the campaigns themselves as chaotic as the unrest which preceded them. Diomaye Faye, freed just ten days before the election, led the charge on the opposition. He acted as a messenger for Ousmane Sonko, who was also freed from charges yet was ineligible to campaign. Under the accurate slogan that “Diomaye is Sonko,” the dynamic duo effectively captured the hearts of the Senegalese at breakneck speed and won the election decisively over Sall’s chosen successor, Amadou Ba.

World leaders and Senegalese politicians of all ideologies have hailed the election as a triumph for the nation’s democracy. Faye will become Africa’s youngest elected leader, pledging to channel the voice of the people into a more prosperous future. In a volatile continent endowed with military coups, foreign influences, and autocratic dictators, Faye’s victory proves there is still hope for democracy in Africa, providing a needed sedative to a volatile Sahel.

However, it remains uncertain whether Faye’s rule will actually help Senegal. Faye relied on populist promises to win the election, such as preying upon anti-French sentiment by pledging to abolish Senegal’s CFA franc to create a national currency. However, such an idea would deter investors from betting on the nation, minimizing its likelihood of coming to fruition.

It also remains to be seen how much of an influence Faye will actually have in the government. After his inauguration, Faye immediately appointed Sonko as the nation’s prime minister, leading analysts to wonder how much of executive governance will come from Faye’s policy or whether Sonko will act as the puppetmaster behind the scenes.

Overall, Senegal’s election is a triumph for African democracy, demonstrating that democracy can stand tall in the face of the sudden collapse and deposal of neighboring governments in the Sahel. While Senegal’s future remains uncertain, for now, the nation may breathe a sigh of relief and nervously anticipate future success.

Read more here:

3) Netanyahu: The Stupidest Leader of the 21st Century Paul Robinson

The State of Israel is, perhaps unquestionably, the most controversial nation on the face of the Earth. No other conflict in all of modern history has rivaled the controversy and intense emotions that have torn families, communities, and even nations apart. Israel sits in a region with dozens of nations who would like to see it wiped off the map surrounding it, and needs to avoid two things to continue to survive: losing support from its allies, particularly the United States, and aggravating the Arab world unnecessarily. This week, Israel managed to do both of those things.

On Monday night, Israel carried out precision strikes against what it thought were military vehicles carrying Hamas soldiers. They were mistaken. Israel killed seven aid workers, including American citizens. It has since conducted a swift review of what happened, concluding that “mistakes were made” in the decision-making process. It’s not incredibly hard to see how this happens. Someone could have raised the possibility of the truck belonging to Hamas, which someone else took as fact. Alternatively, one person could have been so hot-headed that they ordered a strike without sufficient information. After all, it is much harder to verify information when there is a war on, and decisions must be made quickly. As unfortunate as it is, this can lead to dire consequences.

The all-important relationship between Tel Aviv and Washington was nonetheless heavily impacted. In a highly publicized phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spearheaded the war in Gaza thus far, US President Joe Biden emphasized that Israel must take much more significant action to protect civilians.

Netanyahu’s strategy so far has been very clear: wipe out Hamas. And Heaven help anyone unfortunate enough to stand in his way.

Given that American citizens, namely these aid workers, are in the line of fire, the United States is clearly not willing to let him get away with that any longer. President Biden was already under immense pressure from the Democratic base to stop unconditionally supporting Israel, and the killing of American citizens seems to have pushed him over the edge. In a total break from what we could foresee just weeks ago, the US has condemned Israel in the same vein as it would someone like Saudi Arabia, China, or even North Korea. Whatever does end up happening in the next few months, one thing is clear: the days where Israel can count on unilateral US support are over. And the reason for that lies squarely in the brutal war waged by Benjamin Netanyahu.

On Saturday, Israel initiated a strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Make no mistake: attacking another country’s embassy is, by definition, an act of war. At the time of writing, no reason has thus far been made clear. But what is more clear than any reason ever could be is that this is perhaps the stupidest strategic decision ever made by a Middle Eastern nation. Israel, while engaged in a war in Gaza, has just given Iran full license to declare war against them. Iran has the moral high ground here. That is not a good sign.

The United States immediately moved to distance itself from the attacks, saying that it did not even know that they would happen. Nonetheless, many American bases in the region are now on high alert purely because of their government having close ties to Israel.

After Israel initiated strikes on Iranian proxies in Syria on Saturday, IDF Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi claimed that Israel “can handle Iran.” He is wrong. But the disturbing thing is that he and the government he works in does not realize that fact.

Iran is one of the most powerful nations in the entire Middle East. It has a massive army, large oil reserves, an extremist and dictatorial government, and close ties to China and, particularly, Russia. While Russia has not been completely unilateral in their support of Iran thus far, the attack on the Iranian consulate may have just given them all the reason they need to directly support Iran.

Iran has many proxy groups, some of whom are based in Syria, and could attack Israel, potentially diverting resources from the war in Gaza to fight against both entities at the same time, something Israel likely cannot do, especially without the support of the United States.

Israel has also ceded what remained of a chance to reconcile with its neighbors. The Hamas attack on Israel left the Saudi Arabian rapprochement in tatters, but given that Israel has now, completely unprovoked, attacked a consulate of a sovereign nation inside another sovereign nation, it will likely be burned to a crisp within days. A future where all Middle Eastern countries unite against Israel, including both Saudi Arabia and Iran, seems all but imminent. This is a far cry from what would have been predicted just months ago, when Israel was beginning to normalize relations with other nations.

Iran has also threatened to attack the embassies of Israel in foreign nations, in a similar fashion as what Israel did to them. As a result, Israel has begun evacuating its embassies, becoming, in a physical sense, more isolated than it ever has been before. The blame for this lies squarely at the door of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He presumably authorized an action which he knows will cause Israel to go to war. Again. While it is fighting one already.

The scariest part of this situation is that we don’t know how Iran is going to react. Equally unsettling, someone somewhere in the world is almost certainly currently plotting for revenge on a massive scale, and it is not going to be pretty. Israel is about to face the might of one of the scariest nations in the world, and it is completely the fault of their own leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, otherwise known as the stupidest leader of the 21st century.