The Red Folder

Archived from April 1, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by the distinguished newsman Sasha Morel.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

International Stories

3 key international stories for the week:

1) City In The Sun? The Longevity of Hong Kong as an Economic Empire Rowan Seipp

The transformation of Hong Kong from a swampy fishing village to a global commercial hub, despite being in the shadow of trading powers such as Macao and Singapore, is truly remarkable. Despite changing hands multiple times, the tiny island has remained dominant in Pacific and global trade. However, with the recent passage of Article 23 and an increased crackdown by the CCP, the factors attracting big capital to Hong Kong are slowly fading away. Is Hong Kong's era of prosperity ending in the foreseeable future?

As an entity, Hong Kong provides several key advantages for foreign capital. First, the proximity they have to China and other key Asian nations. Along with that, Hong Kong possesses a business-friendly environment that has no VAT tax, which is a unique advantage over nations with a VAT tax, like Austria, Belgium, and Italy. With such a business-friendly ecosystem, investors have flocked to Hong Kong. However, the most important reason is that Hong Kong has a free market “capitalist” attitude, which is remarkably different from mainland China.

However- recent trends suggest that Hong Kong’s incentives might be fading. This year Hong Kong passed Article 23, a revolutionary new national security law that punishes treason and insurrection with up to life imprisonment. The law also includes stiff prison terms for other offenses, including up to 20 years for espionage and up to 10 years for the unlawful disclosure of state secrets. Some provisions allow criminal prosecutions for certain acts committed anywhere in the world. This law has come under heavy criticism, including from human rights group Amnesty International’s China director Sarah Brooks, who said: “With this draconian legislation, the Hong Kong government has delivered another crushing blow to human rights in the city. The authorities have enacted this law in the blink of an eye, killing off any remaining shred of hope that public outcry could counter its most destructive elements.” However, the most pressing fear is what this kind of legislation will do to the future of Hong Kong as an economic hub.

The economy of Hong Kong made a drastic recovery in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis. According to government data, the ability of the economy to recover is shocking. However, government data shows the entire story, as reporting from the BBC outlines: The value of the Hang Seng index, Hong Kong’s stock exchange, has fallen by more than 40% since 2019. India overtook the city in January to become the world's fourth-largest stock market. Singapore has emerged as a stiff regional rival for finance. Global banks have been laying off people focused on Hong Kong and China, pointing to sluggish growth and plummeting investor confidence. Many consider the arrest of Jimmy Lai, a media mogul, to be “an awakening for the international community”. It is too early to view the long-term effects of Article 23. However many companies have already started to recruit political consultants to evaluate risks.

Global business is terrified about what is happening in Hong Kong. With intense pressure on free market capitalism, the longevity of these enterprises is up in the air. Ultimately, it’ll only lead to a divisive question about the future of Hong Kong as a symbol of free enterprise.

-Lee-BBC

-Leung-AP News

2) Haiti: A Series of Unfortunate Events Rohan Dash

For as long as the country of Haiti has existed, it’s only been subject to a series of unfortunate events. As early as the 17th century, natives of the island, known as the Taino people, were faced with brutality and exploitation after being colonized by the French. As stated by The Guardian, abuse was dreadful, although routine, with the average life expectancy for a slave in Haiti being just 21 years. However, after decades of slavery, the Haitians fought back in the Haitian Revolution, and this led to the world’s first and only successful revolt in the world. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be the first time Haiti faced instability.

Following independence, Haiti would continue to face challenges, including attempts at bringing back plantations, failing to establish a stable government, and political instability. By the early 1900s, tensions were heightened in the country, with seven presidents being assassinated or overthrown over the course of only four years. In 1915, the United States would occupy the country, although not with the purpose of helping them, but rather to dissuade foreign influence, especially with Germany. The story only became worse from here, as the US would go on to gain complete control over Haitian finances, manipulate a presidential election to ensure a pro-America president was in power (which only increased unrest as that president was not the popular choice), and even tried to convince Haiti to adopt a new constitution that would allow for foreign control of the country.

As expected, the Haitians were not pleased with the moves made by America, and in 1929, yet another series of uprisings took place, and the international condemnation the US faced led to the withdrawal from Haiti in 1934. At the end of it all, Haiti had seen improvements in its society through infrastructure, although notably observed were human rights abuses and exclusion of Haitians from positions of authority.

Further along, Haiti would undergo dark times with consistent periods of war. In 1937, Rafael Trujillo, the leader of the Dominican Republic, invaded Haiti, killing nearly 20,000 Haitians in the process. Afterwards, Élie Lescot was elected as the President of Haiti, but unfortunately became infamous for censoring the press, and after jailing editors of a Marxist newspaper, became subject to mass criticism and protests, being forced to resign. Over the course of the next two presidents, Dumarsais Estimé and Paul Magloire, the country faced little to no success, overshadowed by a military junta and the country’s first (but certainly not last) natural disaster, with Hurricane Hazel, resetting decade’s worth of progress made in infrastructure and the economy. Magloire failed to distribute hurricane relief properly, refused to leave his office, and ultimately fled the country, leading to the next stage in Haiti’s history: the Duvalier Regimes.

Haiti was at an all time low when François Duvalier, known as "Papa Doc," was elected to serve as the next president. Coming from a rural area and promising to help the poor, he seemed like the ideal leader that Haitians had been praying for. Or so they thought, as Papa Doc would utilize a military organization to essentially terrorize the population to try and end the violence ongoing in the country. Following this, he elected himself as President for life, putting a dictatorship in place. Throughout his rule, Haiti was only going from bad to worse, as the country became isolated internationally and corruption, not to mention human rights abuses. As Duvalier got close to the end of his life, he selected his son, Jean-Claude Duvalier, known as “Baby Doc,” to serve as the next President. Baby Doc made little progress in improving the country, and unrest amongst the country’s poor regarding the economy led to him fleeing the country.

From here up until 2004, the country tried but failed consistently to host elections, often resulting in voters being killed and Presidents who were elected being overthrown, or worse. In addition to this, disease outbreaks led to a decline in tourism, effectively shutting down another major part of the economy. Afterwards, international support began, with MINUSTAH, a UN operation, being sent to maintain security and ensure a democratic election. Folks were optimistic with successful elections in 2006, but unfortunately, high costs of living led to deadly uprisings in 2008. The horrors only continued, with an earthquake leaving thousands dead and millions displaced in 2010, followed by a cholera outbreak. In the decade following, instability would only continue, with allegations of corruption, human rights abuses, and failed peacekeeping missions. Floods have led the country to further devastation.

Today, Haiti is in dire need of support. On February 29th of this year, Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, observed a surge in gang activity, including the storming of two prisons that released thousands of inmates. Since then, gang violence has only been worsening. Just weeks ago, Ariel Henry, the acting Prime Minister of Haiti, resigned amidst the chaos, indicating that illegal activity is the center of the country. Major infrastructure, such as airports, are controlled regularly by gangs. To make matters worse, very few aid organizations have been able to operate in the country since the attacks on February 29th. The UN estimates 5000 police officers are needed to combat criminals. Currently, several countries have pledged to help Haiti, although more support will be needed. Human bodies literally lie in the street, malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, and Haiti needs effective help more than ever now.

Read more here:

3) ISIS: Intimidating States and Instigating Shooting Roshan Shivnani

For those in Moscow's chamber hall a few days ago, they expected to hear the vibrant sounds of a Russian symphony; however, before the music began, their ears were filled with sounds of gunshots and agony. The international incident resulted in 133 confirmed dead, as Russian investigators said they have received more than 100 reports of missing people. But perhaps what’s even more surprising is the group that initiated the attack. It wasn’t their war adversary Ukraine, nor any Western power, but rather the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. As a result of the group publicly claiming responsibility for the attack, many are wondering if the terrorist group is trying to brew up turmoil outside of the Middle East. Yet the event altogether has rattled both Russia and the United States.

Despite ISIS claiming the independent attack for themselves, Putin has been hesitant to just label ISIS as the target. In a surprising turn of events, he’s now trying to use the attack to point the violence at Western powers and Ukraine, an idea which he hopes will help reinvigorate his people in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Additionally, other Russian figures have hopped on the bandwagon, with the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service, Alexander Bortnikov, claiming that the U.S., U.K., and Ukraine were behind the attack. However, from other perspectives, these baseless claims are just further evidence that Putin is trying to cover up the fact that Russian intelligence didn’t see the attack coming, had a poor defense plan during the incident, and took abnormally long to disclose information surrounding the event after it was over.

Besides the international rancor, the incident might change not only Russia’s policies, but that of the United States as well. That’s partially because the response to terrorism in the past can be described as anything but successful, especially when the Islamic State made its intentions and capabilities very clear from 2015 to 2017: In San Bernardino, Orlando, Columbus, and Manhattan, ISIS-inspired terrorists killed 72 Americans. But years later, the United States isn’t as far away from terrorism as it would like to be. 736 individuals whose identities are in terrorist screening databases were encountered by Customs and Border Protection at or between U.S. ports of entry in 2023 alone.

Unsurprisingly, that’s why politicians and analysts alike are concluding that the threats of terrorist groups like ISIS shouldn’t be taken lightly, but rather with a coherent international response. We’ll see if that actually works…